Next two years could see new direction for China
The next two years will see important changes in China’s internal policies and external environment
Source: Oxford Analytica
Outlook
The launch of new Five-Year and 15-Year Plans will see major long-term goals established for the next phase of China’s development, coinciding with the centenary of the Communist Party. Propaganda will celebrate the Party’s achievements in public; in private, citizens will evaluate the Party’s performance, and the elite will evaluate Xi’s. Promotions and purges are also possible ahead of a Politburo reshuffle in 2022.
Who gets vaccinated against COVID-19, how soon, how safely and at what price will be among the most salient political questions over the next two years at home and abroad.
Impacts
- Joe Biden’s presidency may see de-escalation in confrontation with China, but no return to the status quo ante Trump.
- China’s new 2060 net-zero emission goal may foreshadow pro-active climate diplomacy ahead of the COP26 UN Climate Change Conference.
- North Korea may raise tensions in the hope of opening new talks on sanctions relief with the Biden administration.
- A legislative election in Hong Kong may trigger new protests and repression; significant numbers of Hongkongers may begin emigrating.