INT
Central bank policies diverge amid political strains
The US Federal Reserve is notably further ahead than the ECB or Bank of England in considering rate cuts next year
InternationalUK economy faces a long period of stagflation
Headline inflation slowed to 3.9% in November but core inflation remains above 5.0%
United KingdomCleaner GDP as nations grow helps to cut CO2 emissions
GDP growth is correlated with falling emissions once states reach upper middle income, contributing to climate targets
InternationalRed Sea crisis will worsen the world trade downturn
Many shipping firms are no longer sending ships through the Red Sea; this is sharply disrupting global trade
InternationalCOP28 actions will fall short of Paris goals
COP28 had mixed results, paving the way for more ambitious climate action, but also leaving substantial room for failure
InternationalECB rate cuts may start a little later than US cuts
The ECB left interest rates on hold but announced a slight speeding up of its balance sheet reduction plans
EUPMIs signal more services inflation and trade weakness
The flash PMIs for the UK, euro-area, Japan and Australia continue the long-standing services/manufacturing divergence
InternationalFed will remain more cautious than markets on rates
The Fed left rates on hold as widely expected; it expects three cuts of 25bp each next year
United States
