NATO
Prospects for NATO in 2020-24
NATO’s next five years will see disharmony, growth, adaptation, modernisation and structural and technical strengthening
NATORussia will keep up EU periphery’s low-risk subversion
Russian influence operations in Central-Eastern Europe are continuing but their impact is limited
EuropeErdogan will not back down in row over US pastor
Washington has indicated it requires Erdogan to release Brunson but Ankara is showing no signs of climbing down
TurkeyGermany will gradually build up its defences
Berlin’s defence and security strategy is becoming more robust
GermanyRussian missiles increase Baltic region risks
Russia is up-arming its Baltic exclave, Poland wants a US base and Belarus is trying to avoid entanglement
RussiaNATO summit in July is likely to be fractious
Divergent policies over defence spending among NATO allies are likely to be a cause of disagreement
NATONew commands will support NATO's European focus
NATO is turning greater attention towards the European theatre
NATOTurkey is buying Russian missiles to diversify supply
The West will avoid overreacting to the missile deal to prevent Moscow winning an easy victory
Turkey
