International
Even gradual quantitative tightening raises GDP risks
Monetary tapering in the United States, Japan and euro-area raises debt repayment, credit creation and confidence risks
InternationalGlobal reliance on GPS creates new risks
Global navigation satellite systems are ubiquitous but their proliferation has created unanticipated risks
InternationalUS-China tariffs worsen ASEAN middle-income trap fears
Assessments of the US-China tariffs impact see ASEAN gaining GDP and jobs, but in lower-value, less-skilled sectors
InternationalUK economy will wobble close to recession in 2019
GDP grew by 0.2% on the quarter in October-December, hit by sharp declines in business investment and car manufacturing
United KingdomUS yield inversion signals recession within 1-2 years
If US GDP is still growing by June it will break records, but yields signpost weaker growth and possibly recession ahead
InternationalEU edges closer to anti-trust action on social media
Germany’s cartel office has found that Facebook’s data monopoly is anti-competitive
InternationalGerman budget cannot fully offset rising GDP risks
German goods exports fell sharply in December and the manufacturing malaise is spreading across the region
EuropeUS-China trade talks will make tentative progress
The US trade deficit has shrunk for the first time in six months but will likely widen this year despite the tariffs
International
