Europe
EU labour costs will reduce scope for more rate cuts
Growth in total labour costs accelerated in the early months of 2024, keeping wage-price spiral fears alive
EUApplication of nature law will vary across EU
One of the EU’s most ambitious climate policies, the Nature Restoration Law (NRL), has received final approval
EUAustrian economic links to Russia will persist
Austria’s ties with Russia have remained strong despite Western pressure to break them over the war in Ukraine
AustriaKosovo will struggle to mend ties with the West
Kosovo’s bid to join the Council of Europe is on hold as relations with the West show no sign of improvement
KosovoHungary’s Orban may escalate stand-off with EU
The EU’s top court has imposed a hefty penalty on Budapest
HungaryGeorgia will increasingly shift towards Eurasia
The passage of controversial NGO legislation has caused tensions within Georgia and with Western states
GeorgiaNext UK government will have limited fiscal space
Low growth and high debt leave the next government with little capacity to invest in the economy
United KingdomWeaker-than-expected trade would dampen global GDP
The World Bank sees global growth unchanged this year and slightly up next year, assuming rate cuts and firmer trade
International
