Iran
Risks of an Israel-Lebanese Hezbollah war are rising
As Israel and Iran seek to avoid uncontrolled regional escalation, Lebanon looks like a lower-stakes arena
LebanonIsrael will carefully calibrate its Iran retaliation
Concerns about the risk of a wider regional war are not yet over
IsraelIran will seek to reduce Western influence in Caucasus
Yerevan has assured Iran that the South Caucasus will not become an area of “geopolitical competition”
ArmeniaIran’s limited direct attack is set to empower Israel
Israel is still considering its response to Iran’s unprecedented direct missile and drone assault
IranIraq’s Sunnis and Kurds face a more peripheral future
Pro-Iranian Shia parties are progressively cracking down on independent forces from other ethno-sectarian backgrounds
IraqIsrael-Iran-US war risk is being over-hyped but exists
Fears are mounting of an imminent Iranian military retaliation targeting Israeli territory
IranGaza will strain but not break Gulf-Iranian detente
The focus on de-escalation that dominated regional geopolitics prior to the October 7 Gaza war has proven durable
Gulf statesIran will struggle to avoid Israel military escalation
An Israeli strike on Iran’s Damascus consulate killed seven people, including a key ‘Axis of Resistance’ leader
Iran
