Libya
Haftar will retain personal control in east Libya
The warlord has several sons with political, military and financial roles, raising succession questions
LibyaWagner's influence in Africa may prove exaggerated
US intelligence leaks have highlighted Western concerns over Russia's Wagner Group mercenary organisation in Africa
AfricaThe UN will struggle with Libyan unification efforts
The UN's plan to hold elections this year and end Libya's division clashes with the interests of local political elites
LibyaIrregular migration to the EU will rise significantly
Migrant arrivals to Europe via the Mediterranean this year are expected to be over 50% higher compared to 2022
EuropeLibya's energy sector may gradually grow
Libya's National Oil Company (NOC) launched a plan to increase oil production and focus more on gas and renewables
LibyaRussia will resist US pressure in Libya
US engagement in Libya is increasing, with the aim of opposing Russian influence and removing Wagner Group fighters
United StatesLegalising Egyptian migration to Libya will stall
Libya’s reconstruction needs are prompting the return of Egyptian labourers
LibyaHydrocarbons wealth will entrench Libya divisions
In January, Libya’s National Oil Company and Italian company ENI agreed to develop two offshore gas fields
Libya
