Russia/CIS
Russian gas cut-off forces East Europe energy rethink
The end of Gazprom’s transit agreement with Ukraine highlighted uneven energy diversification efforts in the region
Eastern EuropeRussian oil revenues will remain high
Russian oil revenues in 2024 hit an all-time high in domestic currency terms
RussiaRussian trade with China is likely to grow slowly
Bilateral trade with China grew by 1.9% last year, a much slower rate than in previous years
RussiaManpower shortages will hamper Ukrainian military
Despite the latest push to recruit more soldiers, troop shortages in the Ukrainian military continue to persist.
UkraineFears of over-investment cloud copper demand optimism
Decarbonisation technologies will transform copper demand but supply outpacing demand is raising over-investment fears
InternationalNew oil sanctions will impose costs on Russia
The United States imposed its harshest sanctions yet on the Russian oil industry
RussiaSanctions on Serbia’s oil firm have upside for Vucic
The United States imposed sanctions on the Oil Industry of Serbia, a subsidiary of Russia’s Gazprom Neft
SerbiaRussia’s reliance on imported microchips will persist
Western sanctions disrupted Russia’s plans to develop its microelectronics industry
Russia
