Unity on Ukraine is at risk in EU’s eastern members

Hungary, Bulgaria and Slovakia are the main EU outliers when it comes to a united front on Ukraine

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Moscow can afford the war in Ukraine

Rising tax revenues will help Russia to finance its war in Ukraine

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The Prigozhin rebellion delivered a blow to the Kremlin’s information management system but is unlikely to change it

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Russia has adapted its oil export strategy to unprecedented Western sanctions but output will fall in the long term

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Belarus’ foreign policy is very restricted and has not succeeded in reducing the country’s isolation

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The next six months promise to bring further improvements for the macroeconomy but not an end to the war with Russia

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Probing attacks in early June are not the expected counter-offensive, for which the time is not ripe

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Technical and doctrinal shortcomings have prevented the Russian air force from establishing dominance of Ukraine’s skies

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How many Western companies have left Russia is unclear; Moscow has made exit difficult, and there are profits to be made

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Although the government is actively accumulating sovereign debt, repayment pressures are being postponed during the war

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