Modelling the key factors with a natural rate of 1%

For the natural rate to be 1%, fertility, productivity, prices and debt would have to be a lot higher

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Mexico water reform may prove a step too far for AMLO

Public outrage over water decrees points to looming challenges for Mexico’s president-elect

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Duque has young newcomers in his proposed cabinet, but some old faces raise serious concerns for proponents of peace

Summary

Digitalisation will accelerate well-prepared developing countries' growth prospects; the under-prepared will lose out

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The minority government of ANO and the Social Democrats should prove stable if divisions on the left stay under control

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Facing a looming demographic crisis, China is expanding and centralising its pension system

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Human capital will become as key to low-to-mid-income countries as it is for high-income ones

Graphic Analysis

All parties to NAFTA have an interest in reaching a deal before November, but the chances of them doing so are slim

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Change in average income between Q1 2017 and Q1 2018 (%)

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A squeeze on households’ spending and the shift to online shopping is hitting bricks and mortar retailing hard

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