Prospects for the global economy in 2021

The world economy is recovering unevenly from the deepest and broadest recession since the Second World War

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IMF unlikely to resolve Zambia's debt conundrum

Lusaka’s unwillingness to give clarity on its debt will stymie engagement with the Fund, just as it did with bondholders

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Next year German Chancellor Angela Merkel will step down and the United Kingdom will stop abiding by EU rules

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The nuclear issue will be a key policy focus, amid domestic tensions

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Macau has been politically stable even as unrest raged in neighbouring Hong Kong, but has serious problems of its own

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The pandemic has weakened Haiti’s economy, already battered by protracted political instability and unrest

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Congress seems likely to be under split party control until at least 2023

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The disruption of COVID-19 and the weakness of some key economies will ensure there will be no V-shaped recovery

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The government is seeking to restore investor confidence through more orthodox economic policies

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The risks to the outlook in the first half of 2021 are weighted to the downside but vaccines may fuel a V-shaped rebound

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