Local factors may push Indian Muslims to global jihad

Jihadism could gain traction among Indian Muslims if their economic and political aspirations are frustrated

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Afghan political deal creates serious long-term risks

The elite agreement has traded near-term stability for long-term political gridlock and insecurity

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Ankara's ambivalent attitude towards the Islamic State group raises the risk of 'blowback' inside Turkey

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Abuja may pay no greater attention to national security, but the northern insurgency is raising the election stakes

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The government will probably muddle through until the June 2015 elections

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The government response to the attacks are medium-term strategies that will not dispel a growing feeling of insecurity

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The death of al-Shabaab's leader will be only moderately disruptive, given the group's decentralised structure

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Russia will strengthen security ties with Central Asia to prevent Afghanistan violence spill-over

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Kenya's rising debt trajectory places a premium on future growth prospects, which could be undermined by multiple risks

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Algeria could be a key player in stabilising North Africa, yet has so far failed to step up.

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