Unstable Central Asia will drive Russian regional ties

The threat of instability will grow Russia's Central Asian security influence and regional integration

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Hezbollah, Israel conflict risks sudden escalation

Israel's strike on high-level Hezbollah commanders has raised tensions on its volatile border with Syria and Lebanon

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Moscow will continue to modernise its nuclear force and maintain defence spending despite broader economic difficulties.

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The past year has seen rapid strides in China's nuclear weapons capabilities

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Tax system may need more changes but budget reforms will boost prospects for greater international financial aid

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India's naval ties with South-east Asia are growing, but will take years to imply real strategic significance there

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Transnistria will remain largely stable for now but will pose increasing security threat to Odesa

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Opposition UNM will be keener to back Kyiv than governing coalition, while Georgia's separatists align with pro-Russians

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SCO will play an enhanced role in ensuring Central Asian security but will not want to intervene in Afghanistan

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Russian transfer of S-400 missile to China will significantly increase Beijing's military capabilities

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