Prospects for Southern Africa in 2019

Official reform drives face critical tests amid growing public dissatisfaction

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Chile's government will struggle with Mapuche conflict

The death of another young Mapuche man will undermine the president's peace plans for the southern region

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Long-standing political divisions may not dissipate after a forthcoming runoff

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Even if the long-awaited general election is held next year, the military will hold onto power

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Inexperience and conflicting agendas are likely to undermine policy coherence in the incoming government

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The budget outlook is positive, but security challenges will increase and poor resource distribution could bring unrest

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Islamabad should have its long-anticipated IMF bailout, but macroeconomic woes may be less pressing than social tensions

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The main presidential challenger has momentum although the incumbent’s regional bloc is strong

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Rising tensions with the EU over rule-of-law concerns may undermine growth and business confidence

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Maoist rebels now pose a low risk to the country’s internal security

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