Prospects for the United Kingdom in 2016

2016 will see both major parties engaged with bitter internal differences and leadership questions more than each other

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Foreign holdings of EM debt are a key global risk

China and India are relaxing curbs on foreign ownership of domestic government bonds just as the Fed readies rate hikes

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There is little relief in sight on either the political or economic fronts, although recession could ease late in 2016

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Despite the government's disastrous record, the election outcome is far from certain

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The US economy is likely to grow by 2.7% in 2016, but developments abroad pose risks

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An uncertain political panorama will make economic policy-making difficult regardless of the new president's preferences

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Problematic public debt and a forthcoming trade deal presage more concerted state-owned enterprise reforms

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Moscow demands repayment of its Eurobond but potential IMF lending policy change may sustain vital lifeline to Kyiv

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Decisive result has buoyed the currency for now, but banks' foreign debts still pose risks

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2016 will see competition between the contrary impacts of global sluggishness and further euro-area monetary easing

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