Prospects for the global economy in H2 2023

Global economic activity will worsen as services slow, with the downturn relatively mild but potentially prolonged

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Russia’s budget deficit may exceed official target

Oil and gas revenues are down, Moscow cannot borrow from abroad and it is running down the National Welfare Fund

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The Middle East and North Africa is an emerging hotspot for illicit narcotics, arms and fuel flows

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Economic activity has slowed after a stronger-than-expected first quarter

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Central bank pressures are rising and uncertainties over bank solvency, interest rates and inflation will reduce growth

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China’s first in-person hosting of five Central Asian leaders will build its regional economic and geopolitical presence

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Despite similar geopolitical outlooks, Iran-India economic ties have weakened in recent years

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The president wants to review a mining agreement with Chinese state-owned firms once hailed as the “deal of the century”

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The strength of the peso will please many in Mexico, who consider it a sign of a strong economy

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Unfulfilled expectations of Chinese FDI and Beijing's position on Ukraine strain China-eastern EU relations.

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