US-China sea disputes will draw in allies

Lack of resolution of South China Sea disputes will lead to greater allied defence ties

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Migrant surge into EU refines people-smuggling

Rising demand for illicit transiting to Europe is changing the people-smuggling business with far reaching consequences

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Knowing an overt military assault will invoke NATO's Article 5, Russia will increase Baltic covert interference

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Burundi's protests have the potential to develop into an entrenched political crisis if the president remains defiant

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Karabakh prime minister may now overtake parliamentary speaker in race for presidency in 2017

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Military internal security work may prevent Naypyidaw reaching an ethnic peace deal

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Boko Haram militants are in retreat following substantial territorial gains made in 2014

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OSCE observers will be impotent as long as Moscow can intervene in their work

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Kyiv looks to devolve greater powers to regions but majority of Ukrainians do not want Russian-desired federalism

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Several East African states have troops in Somalia, but not all face Kenya's acute vulnerability to al-Shabaab

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