Russia’s influence in Central Asia will wane

Moscow is seeking close ties with Central Asian states that it considers to be within its sphere of influence

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Russia will continue to prioritise the Arctic

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent expansion of NATO has upset Moscow’s strategic approach to the Arctic

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The economy is close to full employment and firms are struggling to find personnel to fill job vacancies

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Russia’s naval superiority in the region is in doubt as its fleet is being eliminated by Ukrainian missiles and drones

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After the likely departure of the PiS-led government in Poland, Fico-led Slovakia is now Hungary’s closest EU ally

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Russia is scheduled to hold presidential elections in March against the background of the war in Ukraine

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Kyiv has so far not achieved any of the primary objectives of its counter-offensive

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Moscow is engaged in intensive diplomacy over the Gaza conflict, but without any substantive impact on the ground

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Gazprom has struggled since losing its biggest export market in continental Europe after Russia invaded Ukraine

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Ukrainian politics began creeping back into life in mid-year and is now surprisingly lively for wartime

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