AFRICA: Islamist terrorism thrives on weak states

Analysis

The United States is expanding its anti-terror efforts to West Africa's Sahara borders through the Pan-Sahel Initiative, a 100 million dollar anti-terror programme designed to help seal the predominantly Islamic region off from al-Qaida and its allies. On January 12, a small team of US troops arrived in Mauritania for the first part of the security programme. During the next two months, defence contractors and US army experts will provide training and funds to the local military units and regional border security forces of Mauritania, Mali, Chad and Niger. The initiative comes in direct response to concerns that militant Islamic groups, such as Algeria's Groupe Salafiste pour la Predication et le Combat, may use the lawless Saharan borders of these states as an operational haven.

Although states with large Muslim populations such as Nigeria, Tanzania, and Ivory Coast are of special concern to the United States, Washington recognises that one of the key terrorist threats in Africa continues to come from the areas where African states adjoin the Arab world (see AFRICA: Al-Qaida threat attracts US concern - February 3, 2003). Therefore, the United States has identified the need to strengthen the security apparatuses of the trans-Saharan states bordering Algeria and the Horn of Africa states bordering Somalia and the Red Sea.

Low risk. Roughly 40% of Africa's population -- some 250 million people -- are Muslims. The United States fears that Muslim communities in Africa could develop radicalism in the same manner as Indonesia and other peripheral Muslim states. However, with the exception of the Tabliq sect of the Ugandan Allied Democratic Front, the recent incidence of Islamic militancy is actually very low in almost all African states. In fact, traditional African religions are more closely linked to the insurgent warfare on the continent.

Muslim communities largely draw on the moderate Suwarian tradition of Sufi Islam, which has not engaged in jihad in Africa since the 19th century. Importantly, these communities remain largely detached towards the Arab-Israeli conflict. Anti-Israeli and pro-Iraqi sentiments are muted throughout western, central, and southern Africa, with minor exceptions in Nigeria and South Africa. Both these states have experienced some radicalisation through the influence of Saudi-sponsored mosques, which have encouraged a more extreme Wahhabi interpretation of Islam.

Nigeria militancy. Nigeria remains the state most threatened by Islamic militancy (see NIGERIA: Local feuds fuel ChristianMuslim strife - January 8, 2003). With 67 million Muslims, it has the second largest Islamic population in Africa after Egypt. Religious sectarianism has become enmeshed with regional politics, as political leaders from the Islamic north and the largely Christian south vie for control and resources. However, with the exception of some isolated cases of religious punishment, Muslim leaders in the north have not displayed radicalism in their interpretation of sharia law and there has been no widespread systematic employment of corporal or capital punishment in criminal cases.

Fed by regional and ethnic rivalries, radical Islam does have a higher potential to serve as a rallying point for social malcontents in Nigeria than in any other sub-Saharan African state, especially as the May, 2004 local elections, which have been suspended since March, 2002, draw close. In the last month, a localised violent outburst in northern Nigeria has been linked to a small group of Islamist militants who have described themselves as 'pro-Taliban.' However, such incidents are isolated and, notwithstanding actions to stop the Miss World Pageant in November, 2002, Nigeria's Islamist factions have not displayed a capability for radical activism.

Terrorist haven. While indigenous Muslim communities do not currently pose a major threat to stability in any sub-Saharan African countries, weak central government authority in many states has attracted terrorist groups to the continent. African states have long provided easy access points to the global air transportation system and offer convenient stopovers for terrorist actors. By offering the means to bypass international banking systems by converting traceable cash into diamonds or valuable commodities such as Tanzanite, they have also remained a weak link in the US effort to interdict transnational terrorist funding. The bombing of two East African US embassies in August, 1998 and the November, 2002 missile and bomb attacks on Israeli targets in Mombassa, illustrate that Africa has harboured al-Qaida infrastructure. The current trial of three Kenyan suspects will include consideration of an alleged foiled plot to bomb the new US embassy in Nairobi in June, 2003.

Horn. In addition to the Pan-Sahel area, Washington has focused heavily on the Horn of Africa as a potential operating area for al-Qaida's regional affiliates, due to the area's weakly regulated borders and coastlines (see PROSPECTS 2004: Fragile peace in West Africa - December 30, 2003). For example, growing fears over Somalia's appeal as a terrorist haven have prompted renewed international attention on the need to establish political stability. US officials originally cited the country as a possible refuge for terrorists after the September 11, 2001 attacks. A study by a UN panel released on November 5, 2003 said Somalia continues to be a transit point for terrorist weapons and claims al-Qaida operatives who initiated terrorist attacks in Kenya last year remain in the country (see SOMALIA: UN urges international boost for peace talks - November 14, 2003). Similarly, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan has directly intervened to build momentum in the current Sudanese peace process. Although Washington's interest in Sudan is partly related to oil access, the country remains on the US list of terrorist sponsors due to its support for armed Palestinian groups (see SUDAN: Tough decisions ahead in stop-go talks - August 28, 2003).

Security initiatives. Local governments and the United States are currently focusing on constraining the operating environment of terrorist groups by reducing the vulnerability of states to terrorist infiltration. Over the past year, there have been a range of new security initiatives:

• US aid to Kenya has included training and assistance to the Kenyan police force, criminal investigation department, and a reorganised National Security Intelligence Service. As the court case against three alleged al-Qaida operatives unfolds, the government will continue to investigate the country's religious seminaries.
• The African Institute for Terrorism was established in Algeria.
• Ethiopia, Sudan, and Yemen on December 29 concluded a tripartite security agreement that will facilitate intelligence sharing.
• Other less threatened states are also taking action, including Zambia where on January 12 the government held a seminar on preparedness against the terrorist use of weapons of mass destruction.