UNITED STATES: Iran still tops terrorism list

Analysis

The State Department yesterday released its 2003 'Patterns of Global Terrorism' report:

• It shows that there was very little change in the number of terrorist incidents worldwide in 2003 compared to 2002 -- a decrease from 199 attacks to 190. In 2003, the overall number of reported anti-US attacks remained more or less constant -- 82 compared to 77 in the previous year (anti-US attacks are those directed against US citizens, property and commercial enterprises). The report emphasises that most of the attacks that occurred in 2003 during Operation 'Iraqi Freedom' do not meet the US definition of international terrorism because they were directed at combatants, that is, US and coalition forces on duty.
• Worldwide deaths from terrorism fell by about 58% from 2002 (from 725 to 307) and the number of wounded fell roughly 21% from 2,013 to 1,593. In 2003, as in 2002, both the highest number of attacks (70) and highest number of casualties (159 dead and 951 wounded) were in Asia.

Terrorism list. The seven countries currently on the US list of state sponsors of terrorism are Cuba, Iran, Iraq, Libya, North Korea, Sudan and Syria. These countries are subject to severe US export controls, particularly of dual use technology, and the sale of military equipment to them is prohibited. Moreover, they are barred from receiving US foreign aid.

The report continues to mute criticism of countries deemed to be of strategic importance to the United States. For instance, it asserts that Saudi Arabia is an "excellent example" of a nation increasingly focusing its political will to fight terrorism; that there is "still more work to be done" in Yemen; and that cooperation is "mixed" with Venezuela.

State sponsors.According to the report, the degree of support for, or involvement in, terrorist activities in 2003 by the seven countries on the list varied dramatically:

1. Iran. Tehran was again designated the "most active" state sponsor of international terrorism. The report asserts that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Ministry of Intelligence and Security were involved in the "planning of and support for" terrorism and continued to "exhort a variety of groups that use terrorism to pursue their goals". Alleged actions cited include:

   • providing safe haven to al-Qaida members;
   • providing money, weapons and training to Hizbollah, Hamas and other Palestinian rejectionist groups; and
   • helping members of Ansar al-Islam in Iraq transit and find safe haven in Iran.

   The report notes that Tehran did detain some al-Qaida operatives in 2003, but that it has resisted calls to transfer them to their countries of origin.

2. Syria.Syria has not been formally detected as active sponsor of terrorism since 1986. However, the report asserts that it continues to provide political and material support to Palestinian rejectionist groups and permit Iran to use Damascus as a transhipment point for resupplying Hizbollah in Lebanon. The fact is noted that Damascus has cooperated with other governments against al-Qaida, Taliban remnants, and other terrorist organisations and individuals. It is also asserted that the country has discouraged signs of public support for al-Qaida, including in the media and mosques, and has made efforts to tighten its borders with Iraq to limit the movement of anti-coalition foreign fighters.

3. North Korea. Although designated as part of the 'axis of evil' by President George Bush in his 2003 State-of-the-Union address, Pyongyang is not known to have sponsored any terrorist acts since 1987. The report stresses that the country has announced plans to sign several anti-terrorism conventions, but has not yet taken any substantive steps to cooperate in anti-terrorism efforts. While North Korea's support for international terrorism appears limited at present, its nuclear programme and its role in the proliferation of ballistic missiles and missile technology (see UNITED STATES/NORTH KOREA: Can talks win modest gains? - February 23, 2004) will probably ensure that it will not be removed from the terrorism list in the short to medium term.

4. Cuba. The report asserts that Havana, a terrorism list 'carry over' from the Cold War, remains "opposed to the US led coalition prosecuting the global war on terrorism" and continues to provide support to designated terrorist organisations. In the absence of a regime change, or an unlikely rapprochement between Fidel Castro and the US-Cuban community, the country will probably remain on the terrorism list.
5. Libya. The report notes that Tripoli has reiterated assurances to the UN Security Council that it has renounced terrorism; shared intelligence with Western intelligence agencies; and taken steps to resolve issues related to its past support of terrorism, including the Lockerbie bombing. Moreover, on December 19, it announced that it would rid itself of weapons of mass destruction and allow inspections of its nuclear facilities (see LIBYA: Sanctions to stay despite WMD move - January 6, 2004). However, while Libya continues to curtail support for international terrorism, the report asserts that it still maintains contact with "some past terrorist clients". Although Bush lifted some US sanctions on April 23 (see LIBYA: Enticing prospects amid risky business climate - April 21, 2004), Tripoli will therefore probably not be removed from the terrorism list in the immediate term.
6. Sudan.The report asserts that Sudan "deepened its cooperation" with Washington, producing significant progress in combating terrorist activity. Although "areas of concern" remain, notably the active presence in Sudan of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the country is a strong candidate for removal from the terrorism list.

7. Iraq. Under Saddam Hussein's regime, Iraq had been cited in last year's terrorism report for a longstanding policy of providing safe haven and bases for terrorist groups. It was also asserted that it had laid the groundwork for possible attacks against civilian and military targets in the United States and other Western nations.

   However, following the regime change in the country, Iraq will probably be removed from the terrorism list if the new administration in Baghdad (which will assume power after the scheduled transfer of sovereignty on June 30) pledges not to support terrorist acts. Bush has already suspended almost all sanctions against Iraq applicable to state sponsors of terrorism.

Report criticism.Administration officials assert that the list and concomitant sanctions policy have contributed significantly to a reduction in the overt -- and apparently overall -- activity level of states supporting terrorism. In particular, they maintain that the decrease in terrorist attacks (and concomitant fatalities from terrorism) in 2003 compared to 2002 reflects substantial progress in the global 'war on terror' attained in large part as a result of international cooperation. While the technology to inflict casualties is proliferating and the number of individuals and groups committed to terrorism is growing, cooperative efforts by international intelligence, law enforcement and national security communities appears, at least in part, to have limited the number of attacks and substantially reduced casualties.

However, the report has been criticised on various fronts, particularly on the grounds that is unduly influenced by domestic political and economic considerations. It is also asserted that its heavy focus on state sponsors makes it of questionable relevance in a world where terrorism is increasingly neither state supported nor state countenanced. Moreover, even some of those who support the current approach argue that it is severely undermined by its inconsistency. That is, it supports a sanctions policy which is not strictly adhered to against some countries, such as Saudi Arabia, with which US and allied strategic geopolitical and economic interests are high.