INDIA: Maharashtra gives Singh seal of approval

Analysis

The Congress Party's coalition with the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) yesterday retained power in the Maharashtra State Assembly election with an enhanced majority. Whereas in 1999, it won 133 seats in the 288-seat Assembly, it has now taken 141. This is still just short of an absolute majority but it should have little difficulty in finding additional support from among 19 independents who have past affiliations with Congress. The main opposition Hindu nationalist alliance of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Shiv Sena won only 116 seats.

Singh triumph. The result will be particularly welcome to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, within whose ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) Congress and the NCP are core constituents. Maharashtra is the country's leading industrial state and this was the first major regional poll since Singh's government came to power in the May general election (see INDIA: Rural vote propels Congress to power - May 17, 2004). He will view the poll as a vindication of his leadership and policies despite the UPA's lack of an overall majority in the Lok Sabha (the lower house of parliament) and dependence on the support of left-wing parties from the backbenches (see INDIA: Left will advocate emphasis-shift, not u-turn - May 27, 2004).

Moreover, UPA parties polled strongly in contests from Andhra Pradesh in the south to Rajasthan in the north. In Lok Sabha by-elections, Congress also increased its parliamentary seats from 143 to 146. Singh's government has consolidated its authority in recent months.

Maharashtra impact. For Congress, the Maharashtra result had two main political repercussions, one of which will ease its concerns while the other may enhance them:

1. BSP failure. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which enjoys strong support among Dalits (low castes) in north India, used the election to test whether its brand of virulent caste politics would be exportable to other parts of the country (see INDIA: UP change suggests BJP nationalist revival - September 23, 2003). Its candidates stood in 272 seats and were seen to pose a threat to Congress, which traditionally draws on the Dalit vote. However, the threat fizzled out. BSP candidates won only 3.9% of the popular vote and no Assembly seats.
2. NCP triumph. Sharad Pawar formed the NCP because of his opposition to Sonia Gandhi's presidency of Congress, of which he was once a prominent member. Relations between Congress and NCP have been fraught and the only reason that they formed an alliance is because of shared opposition to the BJP. In the Maharashtra poll, the NCP won 71 seats, fairing marginally better than Congress, with 70. Previously, Congress held 75 seats to the NCP's 58. The result may lead Pawar to press for replacement of current Chief Minister Sushilkumar Shinde, who is a Congress appointee, with a candidate of his own. The result will also do little to enhance Congress President Sonia Gandhi's position, which many view as undermining that of Singh.

BJP backlash. Since losing the general election, the BJP has been riven by recriminations. Its campaigns over issues as varied as Sonia Gandhi's Italian origins and Singh's appointment of 'tainted' ministers (with criminal charges against them) have failed to move the public (see INDIA: Coalition limits Commission's anti-graft drive - August 18, 2004). The BJP was hopeful that it would make gains because of the anti-incumbent factor -- where the electorate habitually votes out those in power, and because the state government had a poor administrative record. In recent years, Maharashtra -- once the country's most developed state -- has been brought to the verge of bankruptcy amid allegations of corruption. It is also beset by major electricity shortages. That, even in these circumstances, the BJP could not regain power represents a sorry comment on its present position.

Two issues in particular are likely to give it most concern:

1. Sena split. The May election suggested that, while the BJP's own support had held up well in key constituencies, the regional parties to whom it was allied were more vulnerable. The Maharashtra result confirmed this pattern. The BJP's key ally, Shiv Sena, could manage only 62 seats. In its heyday, the Sena drew heavily on the charisma of its former leader Bal Thackeray. However, since his retirement, the party has been split by a feud for succession between his son and nephew.
2. Hardline strategy. Under the leadership of former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, the party's hardline nationalist ideology was pushed into the background, which enabled it to form alliances to gain power. However, since May, critics of Vajpayee have been pressing to restore its more hardline tendencies. They will have gained strength from the results of three recent by-elections in Gujarat -- under the hardline direction of Chief Minister Narendra Modi -- where the party was victorious. However, promotion of its hardline ideology both in Maharashtra and the country at large failed. BJP President M Venkaiah Naidu has now been given cause to launch a far-reaching re-evaluation of party strategy.

Reform dilemmas. Although Singh has used the Maharashtra result to confirm the general direction of his policies, these seek an uneasy balance between the advance of economic liberalisation and the demands of the left-wing parties (particularly the communists) who keep his coalition in office. The NCP is identified with the right of the spectrum of parties comprising the UPA and is broadly committed to economic reform. In recent weeks, Singh and his finance minister, P Chidambaram, have indicated that they wish to press ahead with liberalisation -- especially with regard to foreign direct investment (FDI) in telecoms, airports and the financial sector. The strengthening of NCP's position may embolden them along this course.

However, several of the other by-elections indicate that leftist parties continue to enjoy widespread support. The communist-led Left Front government of West Bengal triumphed in a series of local polls and, in Uttar Pradesh, the socialist Samajwadi Party consolidated its majority as the head of the government. As a result, support for economic liberalisation remains mixed and both Singh and Chidambaram are more likely to continue favouring a cautious reform strategy.