POLAND: Election campaign moves into decisive phase

Analysis

Opinion polls point to an overwhelming defeat in parliamentary elections on September 25 for the incumbent Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) and a clear victory for two centre-right opposition parties:

• the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party; and
• the more liberal Civic Platform (PO).

Over the past few months, polls have shown these two parties running neck and neck at around 20-25% (see POLAND: Belka will stay on until autumn elections - May 9, 2005). However, more recent polls point to a surge of support for the PO with 35-40% of the vote, bring it close to an overall parliamentary majority on its own.

Polls also suggest that, together with the SLD, two radical parties, the agrarian-populist Samoobrona (Self-Defence) and clerical-nationalist League of Polish Families (LPR), are virtually certain to secure representation in the new parliament. These three currently enjoy about 10% support. Two other parties, the Peasants' Party and Social Democracy of Poland -- and possibly a third, the centrist Democratic Party -- are hovering around the 5% threshold required for representation in the Sejm (lower house of parliament).

Presidential race. Although the presidential election takes place in October, it has drawn more attention. It is now a two-horse race between:

• Donald Tusk, PO leader; and
• Lech Kaczynski, mayor of Warsaw and PiS candidate.

Sejm Speaker Wlodzimierz Cimoszewicz, formally independent but backed by the SLD, withdrew on September 14, saying he had been the target of a smear campaign. His chances were already looking slim. His withdrawal makes Tusk's victory almost certain. Cimoszewicz and his supporters have refused to back the only remaining left-wing candidate, Marek Borowski, significantly increasing Tusk's chances of winning in the first round.

Since the beginning of August, Tusk has taken a clear lead. This surge in support has been a key factor in allowing the PO to pull ahead of the PiS in the parliamentary campaign; its high-profile summer campaign focused almost entirely on promoting its presidential candidate.

The only other candidate with an outside chance of making the second round is controversial Samoobrona leader Andrzej Lepper, whose support is currently around 10%. However, Lepper has run a poor campaign and is too controversial to construct a broad enough appeal to win anywhere near 50% of the vote in the second round.

Presidential powers. Although the media have given more coverage to the presidential campaign, the position is constitutionally extremely limited:

• A 60% majority in parliament can overturn the president's veto of legislation.
• The president has the right to initiate legislation, refer bills to the Constitutional Tribunal and nominate senior judges and members of the national broadcasting council.
• As the most important directly elected official in the country, the president may exert considerable informal pressure.

However, in practice, Poland is closer to the German than the French semi-presidential system; the key figure is the prime minister, who must be appointed with parliament's approval.

PO-PiS government. There is an outside chance that the PO and PiS may have to include a third party in government in order to command a parliamentary majority, if all the smaller parties cross the 5% threshold. Recent polls suggest that this is unlikely. Nonetheless, it is important to bear in mind that the polls have been extremely volatile, suggesting that many voters have still to make up their minds and that the situation could still change rapidly.

However, even if the PO and PiS win a clear parliamentary majority and Tusk or Kaczynski secures the presidency, the new government is still likely to encounter difficulties. Although the two parties are seen as natural partners, and in opposition their rhetoric has often appeared to converge, relations have been fractious and they have different policy priorities:

• The more liberal PO wants to prioritise further economic reform, particularly its flagship policy of introducing a single 15% rate for income, corporation and consumption taxes, abolishing tax allowances.
• The more economically interventionist PiS is strongly opposed to a flat tax and Kaczynski has threatened his veto if he becomes president. Its priority is to establish a powerful new anti-corruption and public security office together a 'truth and justice commission' to investigate the political-business scandals that the PiS argues have been endemic to post-1989 Poland.
• The two parties are also divided on Polish membership of the euro-zone: PO favours rapid accession; the PiS is supportive in principle but less enthusiastic to accelerate the process of aligning Poland to meet the criteria.
• The PiS wants to strengthen the presidency, having assumed that Kaczynski would be the strongest centre-right candidate.
• The PO proposes abolishing the Senate (upper house of parliament), halving the number of parliamentary deputies and introducing single-member constituencies for the Sejm; the PiS favours a mixed proportional-majoritarian electoral system.

Moreover, constitutional change requires a two-thirds majority in the Sejm and a majority in the Senate. It would be extremely difficult to enact, while absorbing a great deal of government time and political capital.

Premiership. Whichever of the two parties wins the most votes will claim the right to nominate the prime minister. Recent polls indicate that this is likely to be Jan Rokita, leader of the PO parliamentary group.

Should the PiS emerge as the larger party it was assumed -- until recently -- that its nominee would be party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski, brother of the presidential candidate. However, the prospect of both major state offices being occupied by twins could be a powerful negative argument in the October presidential election, so the PiS is considering nominating another of its leaders for this post.

Opposition. Despite running unconvincing campaigns, the radical Samoobrona and LPR retain high levels of support and are likely to form the main parliamentary opposition. The new parliament could be even more fractious and polarised than the outgoing one, with these two parties positioned to capitalise on the difficulties that the new government is likely to encounter.

A key factor will be what happens to the centre-left. As things stand, the moderate opposition in the new parliament is likely to coalesce around the SLD. Although virtually written off only a few months ago, the party's fortunes have revived under its new 31-year-old leader, Wojciech Olejniczak, who has attempted to use his youth to portray the party as renewing itself and atoning for past mistakes.

However, Olejniczak is an unknown quantity and much will depend on the level of parliamentary representation that the SLD secures. The role played by President Aleksandr Kwasniewski, who is the most popular and strategically astute politician on the centre-left, will also be critical. The SLD's political opponents are well aware of this and will attempt to discredit Kwasniewski during his last weeks in office.