UNITED STATES: McCain's record makes him a contender

Analysis

An extraordinary series of political circumstances -- the unpopularity of the incumbent Republican president, splits within the party's powerful conservative base, and a front-loaded primary schedule -- have made Senator John McCain the Republican party's presumptive presidential nominee (see UNITED STATES: Clinton comeback will boost McCain - March 5, 2008). Yet while his selection was the product of Republican weakness, his reputation for candour and willingness to resist his party's most self-defeating impulses make him a formidable candidate for the presidency.

Milestones

• McCain's father and grandfather -- who both served as Navy admirals -- inspired his early leadership ambitions.
• His experience during the Vietnam War -- where he was captured and tortured, but offered principled resistance -- became the core of his political image.
• His Senate career has been that of a conservative nationalist -- but he is not an ideologue, and is willing to work with Democrats.
• His main political strength -- a reputation for candour and independence -- is related to his political weaknesses, such as a propensity for ill-timed remarks.

Photo (c) Dan Raustadt

Family creed. McCain was born in the former US Panama Canal Zone in 1936, during the depths of the Depression. Yet as the son and grandson of four-star US Navy admirals, he was raised in comfortable, if often itinerant, circumstances. The family's tradition of military service and high achievement gave McCain considerable self-regard, but also served as a strong leadership model.

However, the young McCain's personality departed from his paternal heritage in a key regard: he chafed under authority. His self-described "rambunctious" streak was evident both in school and during his time as a midshipman at the US Naval Academy, where he accumulated demerits and finished near the bottom of his class.

Defining moment. After graduation, McCain began a career as a naval aviator, and was eventually assigned to fly A-4 carrier-based attack aircraft. In 1967, he flew 23 bombing missions over North Vietnam until he was shot down over Hanoi and captured:

• Ordeal. The North Vietnamese government handled captured pilots harshly, and McCain's extensive injuries went largely untreated. For his rebellious attitude, he was placed in solitary confinement for two years.
• Torture and resistance. In 1968, McCain's father was named commander-in-chief of Pacific Command, which encompassed the Vietnam theatre. As a propaganda measure, Hanoi offered to release McCain immediately -- leapfrogging his fellow prisoners of war, who were usually freed according to their order of capture. McCain refused to comply; in consequence, he was tortured and forced to sign a statement denouncing US policy. After refusing to make any further 'confessions', he underwent nearly a year of excruciating, almost daily abuse.
• Release and rehabilitation. McCain was finally released in 1973, and undertook an extensive physical rehabilitation programme. Partly as a consequence of his injuries, his military career faltered. Instead of a major sea command, he became Navy liaison to the US Senate.

However, politics soon beckoned, as McCain's return from Vietnam had attracted media acclaim. The qualities that he demonstrated in captivity were rare, and potent, political commodities.

Political image. McCain's political career began in 1983, when he was elected to the first of two terms in the US House of Representatives from Arizona's 1st District; in 1987 he ascended to the Senate. The tough, independent image generated by his military record was a good fit both with the politics of the state and his distinguished Senate predecessor, conservative standard-bearer Barry Goldwater:

1. Party 'maverick'. Yet McCain swiftly proved to be a maverick, in terms of Senate party discipline. While his voting record was solidly conservative, he was hostile towards the overweening influence of certain 'moneyed interests'. This occasionally led him to forge fruitful alliances with some of the most liberal Senate Democrats, on issues including:

   • campaign finance reform, which ultimately passed in 2001, and placed limits on advertising and 'soft money' contributions to political parties;
   • opposing 'pork-barrel' congressional appropriations to state political interests, through attempts to grant presidential 'line-item' veto powers and end spending 'earmarks'; and
   • immigration reform, through a failed bipartisan effort last year to tighten enforcement while providing some undocumented residents with a path to citizenship.

   McCain has also regularly irritated powerful corporate and party interests by leveraging his oversight powers on the Senate Armed Services, Commerce, and Indian Affairs Committees. Within the last five years, he has exposed a significant corruption scandal involving Air Force procurement contracts, pressed for tightening regulation of tobacco products, and uncovered the illegal activities of former Republican lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

2. Roosevelt model. In this respect, McCain has sought to emulate the 'New Nationalism' of his acknowledged hero, former President Theodore Roosevelt. During his time in office -- and especially during his failed 1912 bid to regain office -- Roosevelt advocated the judicious use of federal power to prevent 'industrial combinations' from abusing their market influence. Corporations were generally seen as a positive influence and should be left alone; but a strong government was also necessary to curb abuses. In this, and in his concern about environmental degradation (including climate change), McCain has echoed Roosevelt's approach.

Presidential issue platform. During his first presidential run in 2000, McCain positioned himself as an anti-party establishment 'insurgent' against narrow interests and "agents of intolerance". Defeat at the hands of George Bush taught McCain the perils of simultaneously antagonising the party's corporate and socially conservative backers. He now follows the party line, but retains idiosyncratic instincts:

1. Domestic policy. At home, McCain espouses orthodox Republican approaches to economic and fiscal policy, emphasising low corporate and personal income taxes and a business-friendly regulatory environment. He largely follows Bush's approach towards health care reform, which emphasises controlling costs (through transparent pricing) over expanding access. However, while he now claims to prioritise maintaining a low tax burden over controlling deficit spending, his instincts remain those of a fiscal conservative; he voted against Bush's 2001 tax cuts. On social policy, he is right of centre, but without Bush's ideological fervour.
2. Foreign affairs. While there are areas of overlap with the current administration's approach -- he would continue Bush's policies towards the war in Iraq, Iran's nuclear ambitions and Russia -- McCain would push US policy closer to global norms on climate change and the treatment of terrorist suspects. He also has a deep respect for traditional US allies and alliance politics, particularly NATO. These sentiments, coupled with McCain's regular involvement at forums such as the Munich Security Conference, have made him a familiar and respected figure abroad. Despite its current political unpopularity, he remains a committed supporter of trade liberalisation.

Political weaknesses. McCain has a compelling biography and distinguished Senate record, but his political skills are sometimes maladroit and he has several other electoral vulnerabilities:

• He is significantly outclassed, in terms of charisma and rhetorical skill, by his most probable Democratic opponent for the presidency, Senator Barack Obama.
• While he is disarmingly candid, for a politician of national standing, this can produce self-inflicted political wounds.
• Many on the Right are sceptical of his social conservative credentials.
• While he has been critical of its execution, he remains a supporter of the US intervention in Iraq; as he has admitted, this ties his fortunes closely to the success of the US 'surge'.
• He will be 71 years old in January 2009, which would make him the oldest US president in history when first inaugurated.