UNITED STATES: Early polling lacks accuracy

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In this article

  • Snapshots, not predictions
  • Polling methodology problems
  • 'Likely voters'
  • Misapplied technique?
  • Turnout guesswork
  • Undecided voters
  • Pollsters' questions
  • Voter preferences change
  • Understanding polls
  • More data is better
  • Be patient
  • Transient 'leads'
  • Close elections are unpredictable

What is this?

This article is from the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief, which analyses geopolitical, economic, social, business and industrial developments on a global and regional basis, providing clients with timely, authoritative analysis every business day of the year. Find out more about the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief, or request a trial.