UNITED STATES: Early polling lacks accuracy
You must be signed in to read this analysis
In this article
- Snapshots, not predictions
- Polling methodology problems
- 'Likely voters'
- Misapplied technique?
- Turnout guesswork
- Undecided voters
- Pollsters' questions
- Voter preferences change
- Understanding polls
- More data is better
- Be patient
- Transient 'leads'
- Close elections are unpredictable
What is this?
This article is from the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief, which analyses geopolitical, economic, social, business and industrial developments on a global and regional basis, providing clients with timely, authoritative analysis every business day of the year. Find out more about the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief, or request a trial.