Two-state partition is most likely outcome for Iraq

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In this article

  • Kurdish demands
  • Sunni demands
  • Relationship reset
  • New political dynamics
  • Stability outlook
  • Near-independent Kurdistan (most likely)
  • Soft partition and federalism (medium likelihood)
  • Violent Balkanisation (lower likelihood)
  • Re-imposed state (lowest likelihood)
  • Oil and investor impact

What is this?

This article is from the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief, which analyses geopolitical, economic, social, business and industrial developments on a global and regional basis, providing clients with timely, authoritative analysis every business day of the year. Find out more about the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief, or request a trial.