Russian presence will constrain Israel in Syria

Analysis

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu paid an urgent visit to Moscow last week to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss Russia's deployment of warplanes, anti-aircraft systems and limited ground forces in northern Syria (see SYRIA: Russian build-up raises geopolitical stakes - September 17, 2015).

Israel's main fear is that the presence of both Russian warplanes and anti-aircraft systems will limit its ability to carry out military action against threats emanating from Iran and its proxies on Syrian territory.

Weapons transfers

Israeli leaders declare that they will act to prevent the smuggling of weapon systems to Hezbollah, which Israel fears could alter the military balance between the two opponents in Hezbollah's favour. Since January 2013, the air force has carried out ten attacks on convoys transferring weapons from the Syrian military to Hezbollah forces.

Israel is concerned about Hezbollah obtaining modern weaponry such as anti-aircraft systems (sa-22, sa-18); precise surface-to-surface rockets, such as the Iranian-made Fateh-110; and Russian-made coast-to-sea Yakhont missiles, which are both extremely accurate and long-range (300 kilometres), able to hit most Israeli ports.

Golan attacks

Israel hopes that Russia will have a 'cooling effect' on Iran, when it comes to border incidents in the Golan Heights.

The regime now controls only about 10% of the Syrian-controlled side of the Golan (on its northernmost part), and this enclave has been used for Iranian-initiated attacks against targets on the Israeli side, using Hezbollah, Palestinian and Druze groups (see ISRAEL/LEBANON: Conflict risks sudden escalation - January 22, 2015).

The Russian build-up further north is unlikely to change the situation in the Golan. Even if Moscow did want to attempt to rein in Iranian-inspired provocations there, it does not have the leverage over Tehran to do so.

Regime survival

The Russian deployment also has substantial benefits for Israeli security by ensuring Assad's survival.

The fall of the regime would likely lead to the 'nightmare scenario' for Israel of radical Islamist rebels or Islamic State group (ISG) and al-Qaida taking over in Damascus and establishing a strong presence on Israel's north-east border.

Instead, the Russian deployment ensures the continuation of Netanyahu's preferred scenario, a stalemate between Assad, rebel groups and ISG/al-Qaida.

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Coordinating zones of operation

Both Israel and Russia want to avoid direct confrontation. In their meeting last week Putin and Netanyahu decided to establish a joint military committee in order to prevent possible misunderstandings and incidents between their air forces and navies.

Netanyahu appears to have received assurances from Putin that the Israeli army will be able to continue bombing weapons convoys destined for Hezbollah in Lebanon. They are likely to have agreed geographic 'areas of interest' inside Syria in order to prevent unintended air battles:

• In practice this may mean that Russian planes will not fly between Homs and the Jordanian border, the usual area of Israeli operation.
• Israel will not be able to carry out attacks further north, particularly around Lattakia where Russian forces are concentrated. Israel has carried out several attacks on targets in the area, including a weapons depot thought to contain the Yakhont missiles.

The Russian presence means that Israel is likely to be more careful when dealing with threats from Syria and Lebanon in future as it seeks to avoid accidental escalations with Russian forces.

This could make it easier for Hezbollah to receive more sophisticated weapons from the Syrian regime. In any case, the movement's leader, Hasan Nasrallah, has signalled in recent speeches and interviews that he feels somewhat protected by the Russian presence.

Israel's response

Israel will not take any direct military steps in response to the Russian reinforcement because it understands its marginal role in the Syrian conflict. At this stage, it seems likely that the Israeli army will keep a more watchful eye on Syria, while trying to avoid any direct confrontation with Russian planes, even at the cost of potentially accepting more weapons smuggling from Syria to Hezbollah.

Netanyahu's visit to Moscow also reflects Israel's new approach to regional security in the wake of the Iran nuclear deal. Netanyahu blames US President Barack Obama for the deal, perceiving it as a disaster for Israel's strategic reality in the region (see ISRAEL: Nuclear deal will reshape Iran policy - June 23, 2015).

By meeting Putin at a time of high US-Russian tensions, Netanyahu is signaling to Washington that he no longer trusts Obama to defend Israel's security interests. Israel views the Russian build-up as an indirect result of the Iran deal, with Moscow more willing to gamble on open cooperation with Iran now that the country is seen as more 'legitimate'.