Libya insecurity will push migrant workers to Europe
Italy bears the brunt of the migrant flows which cross the Mediterranean from Libya each year
Tens of thousands of migrants and refugees from Africa and elsewhere attempt to cross the Mediterranean from Libya to Europe each year, travelling on overcrowded and flimsy boats controlled by people smugglers. The flow of people poses humanitarian and political challenges for the EU and Libya's closest European neighbour, Italy.
What next
Progress on preventing loss of life on the central Mediterranean route, and on reducing people smuggling to Italy will depend on the formation of an effective and unified government in Libya. If the Government of National Accord (GNA) makes further headway, it may seek more financial support from Italy and the EU for the costs of policing and preventing people smuggling by boat. Italy and the EU may also explore other ways of bolstering the Libyan navy and coastguard.
Subsidiary Impacts
- Libya will remain a major destination for migrant workers, despite current economic performance.
- A new political or security deterioration in Libya could trigger a small increase in migrant flows to Italy.
- Libyan border management will remain weak, despite initiatives such as the EU Border Assistance Mission.
Analysis
The issue of migrants and refugees trying to travel by illicit means from Libya to Europe is intertwined with the reality of a much larger migrant worker population in Libya, and the fluctuating political and security situation (see LIBYA: Unity deal may reflect Western goals - December 18, 2015).
Migrants in Libya
Like other oil-producing countries with relatively small populations, Libya has for decades hosted a large, but fluctuating number of migrant workers. No consolidated data exists on the total number of migrants in Libya over time.
However, a reasonable estimate, commonly used before 2011, is that the country usually hosts at least one million migrants, and sometimes nearer two million, relative to a population of around six million Libyans. A 2013 report commissioned by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees estimated the total migrant population to be around 1.8 million, taking into account the exodus of foreigners in 2011.
Libya hosts an estimated 1.8 million migrants
The large majority arrive by irregular means, while a minority (probably less than 15%) come by regular means. Some come from neighbouring sub-Saharan countries seasonally, depending on the harvest season and agricultural conditions in their home countries.
The majority come from North Africa (Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia), the Sahel (Chad, Mali and Niger), Sudan and the Horn of Africa, and West Africa. A smaller number come from Eastern Europe, Asia and Western countries.
Labour market
Migrants work in numerous sectors, such as construction, teaching, healthcare, services and menial jobs. However, the contraction of Libya's oil sector, the stagnation of other economic sectors (such as construction) and protracted insecurity have meant that demand for migrant workers has been flat.
According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), nearly half of Libya's 159 hospitals are closed. The number of foreign staff at Tripoli Central Hospital, for example, has reportedly fallen from 250 to just 40.
Some migrants arrive intending to travel onwards, but instead stay, pursuing work opportunities there, or return home, discouraged by the difficulties and costs of being smuggled to Libya and beyond.
Migration to Europe
Migrants and refugees travelling from Libya to Europe account for perhaps a tenth of the total migrant population in Libya.
The number of arrivals in Italy from Libya and Tunisia was 154,000 in 2015 and 170,000 in 2014, according to European border agency Frontex.
The International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimates that since the beginning of the year some 88,000 migrants and refugees arrived in Italy after crossing the Mediterranean from Libya, and over 3,000 died or disappeared during the crossing. In comparison, during the first half of this year, more than 159,000 people arrived in Greece from Turkey, and around 383 died on the crossing from Turkey, though the flow has now fallen to a minimal level.
Women and girls make up around a third of all migrants in Libya, but a smaller share of those travelling on to Europe.
African migration flows
Flows of migrants and refugees travelling by the central Mediterranean route have fluctuated considerably over the past decade, subject to political factors and policy in Libya.
In 2008 a total of 39,800 people arrived in Italy by the central Mediterranean route. Following an agreement between Italy and Libya arrivals were almost completely halted in 2009 and 2010. Numbers then surged during 2011, as Africans in Libya sought to flee the country, and thousands of Tunisians also crossed to Italy.
Numbers fell again in 2012, but started to rise in 2013, with smugglers taking advantage of the lawlessness in Libya, especially after the collapse of central government in mid-2014.
Among those arriving in Italy, West Africans tend usually to claim asylum, while East Africans tend more to try to travel on to other European countries before claiming asylum.
Libyan policy fluctuations
Libya's long desert borders, its need for migrant workers, and weaknesses of the state during the 42-year rule of Muammar al-Qadhafi, have meant that the movement of migrants into and out of the country has never been well controlled (see WEST AFRICA: Militancy focus masks Sahara-Sahel trade - March 22, 2013).
Libya has always had difficulty controlling its long borders
The ministry of interior has a department for combating illegal migration (DCIM), which co-operates with foreign embassies, the IOM and UNHCR. DCIM notionally oversees some 19 migrant detention centres across the country, but some of these no longer answer to it, while others are operated by gangs and smugglers. The proliferation of armed militias in Libya since 2011, and the split between rival governments since 2014, have created conditions allowing increased abuse and exploitation of migrants.
The Libyan coastguard intercepts some boats carrying migrants and cooperates with international partners aiming to halt illicit migration to Europe. Efforts by various Libyan authorities to tighten controls over the southern borders have been ineffective. The cross-border movement of migrants is a lucrative business for those involved (notably from the Tebu, Tuareg and Arab Zway tribal groups in the south), and is intertwined with other smuggling (see NIGER: Migration corridor to Europe will persist - May 13, 2016).
Under Qadhafi, policy and border controls were erratic, with the authorities periodically expelling thousands of Africans and Egyptians. Racism against black Africans is common in Libya, and Africans have often been used as scapegoats for domestic problems. In 2000 several hundred Africans were killed in an outbreak of anti-African violence, for which no-one was held to account.
European responses
The lack of a unified and effective Libyan government, and unified security forces, is the major constraint on EU and Italian ability to bring about a reduction in illicit migration from Libya.
In 2015 the EU Naval Force in the Mediterranean (EUNAVFOR Med) launched Operation Sofia, aiming to disrupt human smuggling and trafficking. This June its mandate was extended for another year and broadened to include training the Libyan coastguard and navy, and countering illegal arms trafficking.
In May the Italian foreign minister, Paolo Gentiloni, discussed with the GNA the possibility of reactivating a 2008 agreement between Italy and Libya. This provided for multi-billion dollar Italian investment in Libya and Libyan cooperation on stemming the movement of migrants and refugees.
_350.jpg "Libyan security officer talks to illegal migrant at Abu Saleem detention centre, Tripoli (Reuters/Ismail Zitouny)")