Analysis

After half a century of conflict that seen some 230,000 people killed and 6 million displaced, the prospect of peace between the government and the FARC is tantalisingly close. However, public acceptance of the deal cannot be taken for granted.

Plebiscite

The public referendum on the approval of the agreement could be a make-or-break moment for the peace process. Though not completely binding, a 'no' vote would be a blow to the legitimacy of the agreement and would most likely split proponents of the deal over if and how they proceed.

A simple majority would see the deal pass, with at least 13% of registered voters (some 4.5 million people) required to vote 'yes'.

While most opinion polls have shown a clear majority of the public in favour of the peace deal, results have varied widely, and one poll (commissioned by RCN Radio and Television, La FM and SEMANA magazine, and published on August 6) suggested that as many as 50% of respondents would reject the deal, with just 39% voting 'yes'.

Moreover, polls have consistently shown large numbers of the population to be in favour of prison terms for former guerrillas, with the August 6 poll showing 88% support for sending FARC leaders to prison -- an outcome that was ruled out during negotiations.

Justice is therefore likely to be a highly contentious issue, which will be seized upon by anti-peace deal campaigners in their efforts to push for a 'no' vote (see COLOMBIA: Country's future rests on justice talks - December 8, 2015).

Former President Alvaro Uribe's leadership of the 'no' camp complicates matters further for the government. A well-known face, popular with the political right, Uribe is a skilled orator, who is capable of winning over large sectors of the populace.

FARC conference

The FARC announced on August 27 that its last conference would take place in Caqueta between September 13 and 19. It will be the first to be observed by government representatives and will also be attended by national and international guests.

The conference will be dedicated to the peace process, allowing for endorsement of the deal by the wider organisation and marking the transition of the rebel group into a political movement.

It is likely to be well planned and controlled, demonstrating the FARC's cohesiveness and commitment to peace, and almost certainly seeing the peace agreement accepted by the broader group.

However, while FARC units have followed the peace talks throughout the process, and are generally on board, there is a serious risk that some within the group may refuse to accept it.

On July 6, the 200-400-strong Armando Rios First Front announced that it would not abide by the deal and called upon other units to continue fighting. The group is so far the only one to have openly dissented.

However, as disarmament becomes a reality, the temptation for other units or individuals to reject the deal or defect to other groups such as the National Liberation Army (see COLOMBIA: ELN talks will not mirror FARC's - June 24, 2016) or armed criminal organisations (see COLOMBIA: Peace talks offer BACRIM opportunity - February 13, 2015) may increase, particularly if the state fails to provide adequate security guarantees to demobilising guerrillas.

Disarmament and transition

When a final peace agreement is officially signed, FARC members will move to one of 23 designated 'concentration' or 'normalisation' zones. Each area will be surrounded by a 1-kilometre buffer zone, to be kept free of both government and FARC fighters.

Military aircraft will be prohibited from flying lower than 5,000 metres above the camps and the FARC will be responsible for its personnel within them.

Disarmament will be overseen by a UN monitoring mission, with the FARC required to hand over all of its weapons within six months of the official signing of the peace accord (so-called 'D-Day', scheduled to take place between September 23 and 26).

Rebels within the 'normalisation' zones will be given assistance in their transition to civilian life -- a transition which for many will be extremely difficult.

Among the FARC's 7,000 members are individuals who have been fighting for most or all of their adult lives. Many are likely to suffer mental health issues such as post-traumatic stress disorder, which will complicate their reinsertion into society.

Others may struggle to find work due to a lack of particular skills or the social stigma attached to having fought with the FARC.

Such issues are all challenges that will face the government in its effort to turn a treaty into a lasting peace.

Political participation

Higher-ranking members of the FARC will attempt to make the transition into mainstream politics. The group has been guaranteed representation for two legislative periods, with five seats in both Congress and the Senate until 2026. After that, the FARC's political party will have to contest elections as normal.

Such political representation is a highly sensitive issue. While it will be tough for many citizens and politicians to swallow, it is also extremely sensitive for the FARC, which saw around 500 members of its Patriotic Union (UP) party assassinated during a previous effort to enter into mainstream politics in the 1980s.

In an effort to reassure the FARC and prevent such attacks from happening again, a joint Security Protection Body made up of members of the National Police (PNC), the National Protection Unit and former FARC fighters is to be created for the express purpose of protecting former rebels.

Nevertheless, memories of the UP weigh heavily on the FARC and any assassination attempts could be very damaging for the peace process. Moreover, with former enemies working together, and the PNC facing its own internal struggles (see COLOMBIA: Police infighting may undermine security - April 22, 2016), the efficacy of the Security Protection Body cannot be guaranteed.