Early UK vote is set to bolster May’s mandate
A victory in June will give the prime minister more time and flexibility in the Brexit negotiations
Westminster lawmakers will vote today on Prime Minister Theresa May's request, announced yesterday, that she would seek the consent of the House of Commons for an early general election, to be held on June 8. This move came as a surprise, as the prime minister had previously repeatedly denied that she was even contemplating such a step.
What next
May’s decision is motivated as much by concerns about the politics of the 2019-20 period as the immediate advantages that she presently enjoys. The Conservatives start as unusually strong favourites to be returned to office with an increased majority. A strong mandate could be valuable in the Brexit negotiations thereafter, both domestically and vis-a-vis the EU.
Subsidiary Impacts
- A larger Conservative majority could leave May less dependent on backbench hardcore Brexiteers, possibly giving her more flexibility.
- Delaying the following general election until 2022 buys May time for a transitional agreement and a cliff-edge exit becomes less likely.
- The prospect of a Conservative UK government ruling with an increased majority till 2022 will bolster support for Scottish independence.
- The election will delay the start of the Brexit negotiations by one month.
Analysis
In the past, the choice of date of an election would have been, in effect, in the personal control of the prime minister of the day. However, the Fixed Term Parliaments Act of 2011 makes five-year parliaments the legal norm, barring either a government falling in a vote of no confidence (and no other administration winning such a vote in a two-week period) or a two-thirds majority of the House of Commons agreeing to an early contest.
As Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has repeatedly called for an election and did so again yesterday, it seems all but certain that the election will proceed according to May's preferred timetable, even though many in the parliamentary Labour Party will privately doubt the wisdom of their leadership in permitting this.
Why now?
There are several short-term advantages for the Conservative Party in there being an early poll:
Opposition disarray
May enjoys particularly strong personal opinion poll ratings. The Labour Party has been in a state of deep crisis and fundamental division ever since the election of the veteran hard-left member of parliament (MP) Corbyn to its leadership in 2015 (see UNITED KINGDOM: Labour Party is unlikely to split - September 28, 2016).
The UK Independence Party is in a state of disarray over its future purpose in politics following the referendum decision to back its core policy of leaving the EU, and has suffered a leadership meltdown.
The pro-EU Liberal Democrats -- who suffered a stinging setback in the 2015 election, falling from 57 MPs to a mere eight -- have been showing some signs of revival of late, especially in areas where traditionally they had shown strength, but an early poll would prevent that momentum from acquiring critical mass.
Stronger mandate
Finally, a victory of her own would allow May to claim an enhanced mandate at the outset of what will be difficult Brexit negotiations.
A victory would bolster May's mandate at the outset of difficult negotiations
Other factors?
However, other factors may well have been more fundamental to May's decision to call for an earlier poll:
Crowded timetable
The original schedule would have required an election in May 2020. This could mean the United Kingdom leaving the EU in what might be a messy process a mere year before the outset of the election campaign.
That timetable would have also limited the government's political options in terms of interim or transitional arrangements that might fill the space between departure and any more permanent relationship with the EU, as the prime minister would have been reluctant to seek re-election in 2020 with any suggestion that the United Kingdom had not fully left the EU as she had promised (see EU/UK: A transitional Brexit deal is likely - March 29, 2017).
Scottish independence?
Furthermore, the Scottish government's calls for a second independence referendum after the conclusion of the Brexit negotiations but before the United Kingdom leaves the EU have increased the likelihood of a vote on that issue taking place in 2019 (though the 2017 election could see the Scottish National Party lose Westminster seats, which would play into the pro-United Kingdom camp's narrative), which would have been uncomfortably close to the 2020 election (see UNITED KINGDOM: Scotland will have independence vote - March 28, 2017).
Labour revival?
Finally and critically, the longer the parliament went on, the deeper the risk that trade unions would depose the unpopular Corbyn from the Labour leadership and neutralise a considerable Conservative advantage.
Probable outcome
With all these factors counted in, the decision to go for a 2017 poll rather than wait for 2020 looks like the safer one.
Given the extent of the Conservative lead in opinion polls (15-20 percentage points in most cases) and the vast lead that May has over her Labour opponent Corbyn on the question of who would be the best prime minister (a YouGov poll puts her 36 percentage points ahead), it would be a shock if the Conservatives were not returned to office with an enhanced majority.
May's single largest challenge will be to manage expectations
Indeed, such is the scale of current assumptions of a Conservative win that the single largest challenge May faces over the next few weeks is to manage political expectations and ensure that her supporters turn out for an election that many may consider already decided.
Anything less than 40% of the popular vote and a majority of 100 seats in the House of Commons would be deemed a disappointment by many in the senior ranks of the party.
Whether May can outperform that standard may depend less on her own performance in the campaign and more on whether the Labour Party has enough discipline to tack to the centre and make the most of its traditional strengths on issues such as the health service, social care and schools or, in another scenario, engages in factional infighting in advance of an internal leadership election after its defeat, which becomes all-consuming.
Brexit impact
It is hard to conceive that there would be no impact on Brexit at all if the Conservatives won with an increased majority. At a minimum, it would render any possibility of a second referendum or a belated change of heart on the issue by the UK government in the midst of negotiations highly implausible.
It also offers May somewhat more flexibility for a form of 'staged' departure, in which the United Kingdom leaves the EU in a legal sense in March 2019, but has a very close relationship for a further two years while a final deal is assembled.
Much will depend on the extent to which May is willing to be specific about her 'red lines' for the opening divorce talks and the final settlement she would like, in drawing up the Conservative manifesto and while fighting the election campaign. She may opt to be vague, in which case the mandate effect will be limited.
