Kenya election controversy increasingly likely

Analysis

On August 8, Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga will once more contest Kenya's presidency.

In the 2013 elections, Kenyatta won significantly more votes than Odinga but only surpassed the threshold to secure a first-round victory by 0.51%. Alleging malpractice, Odinga filed a petition at the Supreme Court -- and was outraged when the official result was allowed to stand.

Since then, Odinga has been strengthened by the decision of the influential ethnic Luhya leader, Musalia Mudavadi -- who himself stood for the presidency in 2013 -- to support his candidacy. In addition, the recruitment of Kalenjin leader Isaac Ruto has boosted his profile in the pivotal Rift Valley region (see KENYA: Opposition will need unity for 2017 - November 18, 2016).

Kenyatta has also bolstered his ranks, recruiting Kalenjin politician Gideon Moi -- chairman of the Kenyan African National Union (KANU) party and son of former President Daniel arap Moi (1978-2002). Since 2013, Kenyatta has transformed the 'Jubilee Alliance' coalition into an integrated -- and generally more coherent -- political party (see KENYA: Ruling party on course for 2017 win - September 23, 2016).

As a result, the election is once again a two-horse race -- and is extremely tight across the presidential, legislative and county levels.

Opinion polls

Opinion polls in Kenya have a reputation for being controversial and contradictory. However, until recently, every reputable poll showed Kenyatta leading Odinga, typically by four or five percentage points.

That changed in July with the release of a poll commissioned by the opposition NASA coalition and endorsed by controversial US pollster John Zogby, which gave Odinga a narrow lead of 47.4% to Kenyatta's 46.7% (see AFRICA: Political consultants will have limited impact - July 31, 2017).

Government figures dismissed that poll given its origin, but a subsequent survey by Infotrak Harris came to the same conclusion -- bolstering Odinga's claim that he has surged into the lead.

However, questions have been raised about the representativeness of the Infotrak sample, which differs in significant ways from the country's demographic profile. An Ipsos Kenya poll released at the same time suggested Kenyatta remained ahead on 47%, with Odinga trailing on 43%.

Given that Kenyatta's supporters have historically registered to vote and turned out in higher numbers, the president is on balance likely to win by a small margin.

Perceptions

Because Kenyan polls typically include undecided voters and those who refuse to answer in the calculation used to estimate vote share, their projections underestimate the proportion of the vote that each candidate is likely to receive.

This is significant because, by showing both Kenyatta and Odinga on less than 50% of the vote, the media has created the impression that neither candidate will secure the absolute majority required to win in the first round.

However, when the results are adjusted to exclude undecideds and those who refuse to answer, Kenyatta is typically projected to win 51% or 52% of the vote. The fact that this is poorly understood means that a first-round win for the president is likely to cause surprise and lead to accusations of fraud -- even if it is legitimately achieved.

IEBC

Even though a new set of commissioners was appointed in January, public confidence in the electoral commission has been rocked by multiple scandals (see KENYA: Local dynamics may spur electoral violence - January 5, 2017).

One of the most prominent relates to the procurement of presidential ballot papers. The contract was awarded to Dubai-based company Al Ghurair despite a comparatively expensive quote. NASA took the issue to court, alleging that Al Ghurair won the contract because it has close ties to Kenyatta's brother -- and would help the government to manipulate the polls.

After the High Court initially sided with NASA and ordered the process to be restarted -- throwing the election timetable into question -- the original contract was reinstated by the Court of Appeal. This has exacerbated the concerns of opposition supporters.

More worryingly, Chris Msando -- the acting director of information and communication technology for the IEBC -- went missing on July 28 and was subsequently found dead on July 31.

Significantly, Msando was viewed by NASA as a credible figure with the power to ensure that key election technology -- including biometric voter verification and electronic results transmission -- works as intended. Despite government assurances, his murder has heightened NASA concerns that the election will be rigged. This is of particular concern given that this technology failed comprehensively in 2013.

Violence

Both sides have said they are committed to non-violence -- but both have also said that they will respond vigorously if the election is rigged.

At a press conference on July 28, NASA leaders shared documents that they claim show that the military is engaged in a plot to rig the election through operations to isolate specific communities. The military confirmed that the documents were genuine but said that they were taken out of context and related to contingency plans in case of election unrest. Yesterday, Kenya's defence minister told media that the documents were, after all, fake.

Jubilee leaders have also accused NASA of planning fraud and stated that, given the ruling party's lead in the polls, they would find an opposition victory highly suspicious.

Against this backdrop, allegations of vote rigging could spark violence, especially if the losing party refuses to accept the result. Hotly-contested elections at the sub-national level -- especially for the highly-prized position of county governor -- could also see localised unrest (see KENYA: Primaries may not portend a violent election - May 18, 2017).

However, the potential for this to scale up into widespread ethnic clashes is constrained by two factors.

First, there is no evidence that NASA leaders have the capacity to deploy militias capable of confronting state forces.

Second, a record number of security personnel -- 180,000 -- will be deployed to potential 'hot spots'.

While this strategy could be effective in maintaining political order, the opposition will allege that it is a ploy to intimidate their supporters and steal the vote.