Pakistan may avoid revising its counterterror plan
Widespread support for the National Action Plan obscures its flaws
A statement issued yesterday after a meeting of Pakistan's National Security Committee rejected US President Donald Trump's accusation that the country harbours terrorists. Pakistan's counterterrorism strategy is enshrined in the 2015 National Action Plan (NAP), hailed as a product of political consensus and a blueprint for eradicating terrorism. Despite cross-party political and military support, the plan has not delivered on its promises.
What next
Without more effective monitoring and actionable goals, the NAP will not help stem the spread of extremist ideas. Pakistan is likely to see more terrorist attacks in the short term. Strong commitment to the NAP from political and military stakeholders will nonetheless subdue calls for the scheme’s revision, hindering the ability of Pakistan’s criminal justice system to deal with terror suspects in the long term.
Subsidiary Impacts
- Human rights groups will increase their protests against military courts.
- A potential spike in terrorist attacks would weaken the civilian government, through a military coup would be unlikely.
- Terrorist groups based in Pakistan will launch further attacks in India and Afghanistan.
Analysis
The NAP was agreed at the All Parties Conference which former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif convened in January 2015, the month after the Army Public School massacre in Peshawar.
The 20-point plan has become a central component of Pakistan's counterterrorism strategy. All major political parties and the military leadership have pledged support for it.
The NAP provides a broad vision of a Pakistan free of terrorism, but has not delivered on this promise.
The NAP optimistically envisions a terror-free Pakistan
Pakistan has not been able to curb organisations such as Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, which pledges allegiance to Islamic State and was responsible for the Army Public School attack (see PAKISTAN: New wave of terrorism exposes policy failure - March 1, 2017). The risk of terrorist attacks remains high, especially in urban areas.
The Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (PILDAT), a think tank, unveiled what it calls the 'People's NAP' on August 4, explaining in simplified language the responsibilities of central government, provincial governments and ordinary citizens in furthering the aims of the NAP.
Pakistan's government and military have demonstrated less concern with revising the NAP to address shortcomings.
Ineffective monitoring
Critics of the NAP point to the lack of a clear assignment of responsibilities for its oversight.
Pakistan's National Counter Terrorism Authority (NACTA), formed in 2009, was entrusted with implementing the NAP's 20 points.
However, NACTA is yet to be made properly functional. NACTA's chief Ihsan Ghani said in December 2016 that the organisation had "no operational role" and was "not a homeland security department".
The government in August 2016 instituted an implementation and review committee under Nasser Khan Janjua, the national security adviser, to monitor the progress of the NAP.
'Apex committees' were established in all of Pakistan's provinces, as well as the territories of Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir, to coordinate the work of the NAP. Yet none of these committees has published any progress reports.
PILDAT says good progress is evident on three of the 20 points
PILDAT issued a document in May reporting on the progress of the NAP in Punjab province. It suggested that the government had only made "good" progress in relation to three of the 20 points, with "satisfactory" progress made in respect of another three. It added that "somewhat satisfactory" progress had been made in ten areas, with "unsatisfactory" progress in four.
Unless monitoring of the NAP at an official level becomes more precise, actions taken under its purview may remain isolated and piecemeal.
Nebulous goals
Another major problem with the NAP is that the scheme does not set out quantifiable objectives for tackling terrorism.
The NAP states that anti-terror operations in Karachi will be taken to their "logical end". However, there is no coherent logic behind Karachi's problems. The city struggles not only with terrorism, but also with gang violence and ethnic strife. These cannot all be subsumed under counterterror initiatives.
The plan calls for "political reconciliation" in Balochistan province. Yet the Baloch insurgency cannot wholly be associated with Islamist terror, as separatists are pursuing political autonomy from Islamabad (see PAKISTAN: Security and stability elude Balochistan - January 11, 2017).
It is widely alleged that Pakistan's intelligence agencies support terrorist groups.
In his statement on August 21 regarding the United States' Afghan strategy, Trump accused Pakistan of harbouring terrorists. The following day, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson warned Pakistan that the United States may withdraw its status as a major non-NATO ally and cut military aid unless it ceases providing a haven for terrorist organisations.
The NAP pledges to prevent religious extremism and curb hate speech, besides regulating seminaries and cutting sources of finance for terrorist organisations. However, the suspicion that Pakistan tolerates militant groups operating in its territory tacitly undermines such commitments.
Official support
Despite its problems, the military and most major political parties support the NAP. Several figures have made public calls for fuller enforcement of the NAP rather than its revision.
After a bombing in Lahore in February, Imran Khan, leader of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party, implied that proper implementation of the NAP would prevent terror attacks. General Qamar Javed Bajwa, the Army's chief of staff, complained about ineffective implementation at an apex committee meeting in Karachi in last month.
There has been no official statement assessing whether the NAP has brought a decline in terrorist activity in Pakistan.
US State Department figures indicate that the number of terrorist attacks in Pakistan decreased to 1,009 in 2015 from 1,823 in 2014. Deaths due to terrorist attacks decreased to 1,081 in 2015 from 1,761 in 2014.
Ostensibly, this suggests that terrorism had declined since the formulation of the NAP, but global incidences of terrorism decreased in the same period.
Judicial quandary
A reliance on military courts within the NAP means that Pakistan's criminal justice system may struggle to deal with terrorism in the long term.
The NAP provided for the establishment of military courts for a period of two years, to expedite trials of terror suspects. A constitutional amendment was passed in January 2015 to make this possible. After the expiry of the two-year period in March, the operation of the courts was extended for another two years.
With the introduction of the NAP, Pakistan restored the death penalty for terror convicts.
In 2015-16, a total of 413 people were reportedly hanged after trials in military courts. Yet it is unclear whether all -- or even many -- of those executed were guilty of terror-related offences.
413
Number of people reportedly hanged after military tribunals in 2015-16Military courts can appear to dispense justice in a quick and decisive fashion, but this raises concerns about fair trials and may also have the effect of stifling judicial reform.
Pakistan will struggle to deal with the number of terror suspects without empowering civilian courts to deal effectively with them. The NAP promises to reform the criminal justice system, but there are no signs of this happening.
The persisting role of military courts will most likely strengthen the military and may weaken the country's democratic institutions.
