German election campaign will ignore hard choices

Analysis

The electorate's apparent desire to maintain the comfortable economic and political status quo plays into the hands of Chancellor Angela Merkel and her Christian Democrats and their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU). Merkel seems to be heading for a fourth term, maintaining a wide lead over her weakened Social Democratic (SPD) challenger Martin Schulz.

An ARD-DeutschlandTrend poll published on August 25 puts the CDU/CSU comfortably at 38%, the SPD at 22% and the four smaller parties -- the liberal Free Democrats (FDP), the Greens, the Left Party and the populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) -- at 8-10% each.

SPD dilemma

At the heart of the unexciting election campaign lies the central dilemma facing the SPD: how to make a convincing case for change, as junior partner in a grand coalition led by a centrist chancellor who is held in high regard domestically and internationally.

Any assault on the government is an attack on the SPD's own record. The chancellor claims ownership of the grand coalition's achievements even when the policy initiatives came from the SPD.

Moreover, Merkel has gradually moved the CDU towards the centre by adopting or tolerating many centre-left positions.

Meanwhile, the SPD's core electorate -- industrial workers, trade unionists and public-sector civil servants -- is eroding.

This puts the SPD between a rock and a hard place. It is challenged on labour policy and health issues by the Left Party which calls for more redistribution, higher public-sector spending, higher minimum wages and better workers' rights.

On internal security, the CDU and the AfD are seen as better 'law and order' advocates. On economic policies, the CDU and the FDP are widely perceived as more competent. On social issues, the Greens and the FDP are more progressive.

As a result, the SPD is in the most difficult strategic position in its long history (see GERMANY: SPD will struggle to emerge from low point - June 14, 2016).

Choosing former European Parliament President and Berlin-outsider Martin Schulz as Merkel's rival at the beginning of the year had a surprise effect, but that faded rapidly (see GERMANY: Schulz is unlikely to be a threat to Merkel - May 17, 2017).

Depending on the precise results, the SPD may or may not seek to renew the grand coalition. The dilemma is that in government, leading SPD politicians can stay in office, directly influence policymaking and remain visible, whereas an opposition role might give the party better chances of recovery and programmatic renewal. The latter option looks increasingly likely.

Race for bronze

Even though game-changing surprise events or blunders cannot be ruled out during the campaign, the race for third place behind the CDU/CSU and SPD is now looking like the key unknown.

No government that would include the AfD or the Left Party is a credible option. Nor is the renewal of an SPD-Green alliance, last in government under former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder (1998-2005).

Merkel will stay in office by either renewing the grand coalition with the SPD or forming a new alliance with the FDP, the Greens, or both (if the two parties can overcome their ideological differences). To keep their options open, all four parties are running cautious campaigns, in which their policies in key areas differ less starkly than might otherwise be expected:

Migration policy

Migration, the most controversial policy area in recent years, seems settled for the moment.

The CDU/CSU has buried its internal differences and the FDP, SPD and Greens have challenged Merkel on her lack of domestic and European consultation and on aspects of local implementation but not on the general substance of her policy.

The AfD's fundamental opposition which had fuelled its sudden rise in 2015-16 remains strong and vocal but the party's overall electoral appeal has declined.

Foreign affairs and defence

The changing global environment challenges Germany's broad foreign policy consensus, yet the topic is being underplayed in the election campaign.

The nature and volatility of US President Donald Trump's administration has blurred the traditional, nuanced differences between the CDU/CSU (emphasis on transatlantic ties, NATO and European integration), the SPD (Ostpolitik and engagement with Russia) and the Greens (human rights and global multilateralism).

Trump astonishes all German parties equally and has revived anti-US sentiment in the electorate (see EU: Leaders’ approaches to Trump will vary - August 17, 2017).

Developments in Russia, Turkey, North Africa, the Middle East and Asia might point to a need for a much larger German and European commitment on defence but the election campaign does not reflect that.

The CDU/CSU still defends an increase in defence spending but the SPD openly questions NATO's target of spending 2% of GDP on this area. Moreover, Schulz has started a debate on the usefulness of US nuclear weapons in Europe.

FDP leader Christian Lindner has provocatively suggested that Germany accept the status quo over Crimea as a frozen disagreement and return to closer cooperation with Russia. This position is shared by some SPD members, most openly Schroeder.

Future of the EU

Mainstream party differences on the future of the EU are relatively small. Both Merkel and Schulz support a renewed French-German alliance as a driver for European integration (see FRANCE/GERMANY: Axis hinges on reform delivery - July 14, 2017).

Measured shifts away from CDU Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble's strict interpretation of European austerity policy can be expected under any coalition, but would be least likely in a CDU/CSU-FDP alliance.

Domestic security

Recent terrorist attacks have made internal security a key topic (see GERMANY: Security will emerge as key issue in election - October 21, 2016). Again, there is little substantive difference between the CDU and the SPD, but the CDU has traditionally been perceived as more competent on these matters.

Civil liberties advocates within the Greens and the FDP are on the defensive.

Environment and 'Dieselgate'

Environmental issues play a significant role but the disappointing results of the Diesel summit have revealed that all parties, including the Greens, are reluctant to confront the powerful car industry (see GERMANY: Diesel compromise will only buy time - August 3, 2017).

Infrastructure and digitalisation

The FDP has made infrastructure modernisation, innovation and digitalisation a central campaign issue and seems to benefit from its image as a modern and tech-friendly business party.