Banned vote sets Catalonia on independence path
Madrid’s attempts to prevent voting backfired badly owing to the forcible measures used by the Spanish police
King Felipe yesterday accused the Catalan government of “showing inadmissible disloyalty”. Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont said his government would “act at the end of this week or the beginning of next”, after more than 2 million Catalans voted for independence on October 1, despite a variety of state measures designed to prevent voting.
What next
A declaration of independence by the Catalan parliament is the most likely scenario. Puigdemont is calling for negotiations with Madrid and a dialogue with the EU about possible mediation, which implies a readiness to discuss options falling short of separation, but neither call is likely to prosper at this point as Madrid remains intransigent and EU treaties involve support for the territorial integrity of member states and their constitutions. Nonetheless, the Catalan government will continue to attempt to internationalise the question.
Subsidiary Impacts
- International sympathy for the independence bid may force the EU to address the issue of separatism within member states for the first time.
- Rajoy’s handling of the Catalan challenge could damage the standing of his PP in future elections.
- Spanish debate about how to avoid secession will increasingly focus on the search for cross-party agreement on a different state model.
- The Catalan issue undermined the support Rajoy has received from the Basque Nationalist Party, preventing approval of the 2018 budget.
- Economic growth will be affected by a loss of international investor confidence, which would also be problematic for a Catalan republic.
Analysis
Although the validity of the referendum was accepted by only a minority of Catalans in opinion polls preceding it, the controversial way in which the pro-independence parties pushed their plans through the Catalan parliament has been eclipsed by the events on October 1.
Both the size of the turnout and the tactics used by Spain's militarised Civil Guard and the national police force have contributed to legitimising the vote as a referendum in the eyes of many Catalans.
Stable support for independence
Despite much more adverse circumstances, the provisional figures issued by the Catalan government indicate that support for independence has remained roughly comparable to November 2014, when the Catalan government held a consultation on independence that was banned but tolerated, and to the 2015 Catalan regional elections (see SPAIN: Catalonia poll to determine independence issue - September 23, 2015).
Despite restrictions due to police seizures of voting materials and physical repression of people attempting to vote, over 2.2 million Catalans took part out of the 5.3 million who were eligible (42%). With unionist parties boycotting the event as in 2014, over 90% of voters backed independence.
Many see this as a moral victory for the pro-independence forces, thanks to the peaceful yet determined way in which many Catalans voted and took action at the local level to ensure that most of the voting stations would open, ballot papers would be protected from confiscation and enough people would be present to limit the impact of Spanish police efforts to prevent voting.
The regional police force (the Mossos) has been more reluctant to take sides. The Spanish national court today announced its leader would be investigated for "preventing [...] the application of laws".
By announcing on the morning of October 1 that people could vote in any voting station, the Catalan government also did much to thwart the police operation.
Civil Guard baton charges against voters and the forcible police entry into some polling stations brought condemnation from the Spanish left and have since led to widespread protests and strikes in Catalonia.
893
Number of injuries at police hands, according to Catalan officials
Injuries at police hands were put at 893 by Catalan officials, while the Spanish interior ministry has put police injuries at 431.
Political aftermath
The vote will solidify the pro-independence coalition in the short run.
Those politicians, mostly within the Catalan Democratic Party, who had been hoping for a weaker pro-independence vote are in no position now to demand compromise, since anger at Spanish police action is high and bilateral negotiations about constitutional change have been rejected by Spain's Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy.
A declaration of independence would place on the agenda an 18-month transition plan. This would involve holding constituent elections to form an assembly that would draft a Catalan constitution, to be submitted to a referendum in Catalonia.
The unionist Citizens party has called for invoking Article 155 of the Spanish constitution to force Catalonia to hold a regional election. Rajoy has so far hesitated to use this, but the uncompromising tone of King Felipe's speech last night suggests that it is still on the table.
Invoking Article 155 could give pro-independence forces a fresh mandate
Using this to remove the Catalan government and impose an early regional election holds many risks. It would polarise Catalans further and might either give pro-independence forces a fresh mandate or make Catalonia more difficult to govern if the elections are boycotted by pro-sovereignty forces protesting against the proscription of their leaders.
So far, Rajoy has not been able to reach agreement with Socialist leader Pedro Sanchez on how to proceed. Sanchez has criticised the police action and favours a bilateral dialogue between Rajoy and Puigdemont.
Future of Rajoy
Rajoy benefits from a lack of rivals in his Popular Party (PP). Nonetheless, the events of October 1 have discredited him in the eyes of both the PP's far-right wing, which wanted even stronger police action, and more moderate elements who now see Rajoy as having lost control of the situation. The latter group suspects that he lacks the ability and imagination to negotiate a reform of the constitution that would recognise the existence of different nations within Spain.
Spain's standing in the international community will suffer if the government proves unable to retake the initiative with a proposal that stands some chance of attracting cross-party support in Madrid and majority agreement in Catalonia.
Many Catalans see a change of Spanish government as essential for any compromise
Another difficulty for Rajoy is that many Catalans now see a change of Spanish government as essential to open up any road to compromise.
If no convincing initiative is taken in Madrid, international organisations may start to attempt some light form of mediation to keep Catalonia in Spain. This would not be welcomed by the unionist parties, who fear that any outside involvement would help a Catalan state come into existence.
Prospects of compromise?
Recent polls have indicated that there are more Catalans wanting enhanced autonomy than there are supporters of complete separation. With Spanish parties unable to agree among themselves, an intermediate formula for Catalonia's relationship with Spain would only be viable through mediation or a shift towards less radical parties in Catalonia (see SPAIN: Politics in Catalonia will see realignment - September 29, 2016).
If the EU continues to support the Spanish government, its Catalan counterpart is likely to approach other international organisations, but this may be of limited effect if Madrid refuses to recognise any mediators.
If it comes to holding constituent elections in Catalonia, the pro-independence forces could lose their majority and find themselves either in opposition or forced to negotiate with some anti-independence parties to stay in office (see SPAIN: Catalan vote may go ahead despite opposition - September 11, 2017).
However, this scenario raises the question whether a government in Madrid is willing to endorse a compromise reached among Catalans. If that is not the case, the real options for Catalonia will continue to revolve around the question of independence.
