South Africa's ANC will aim for quick Zuma departure

Analysis

Ramaphosa defeated former African Union Commission Chairperson and Zuma's ex-wife Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma by a narrow margin in December's ANC leadership contest.

Since then, Zuma, whose term officially ends in 2019, has seen his power within the ANC and state institutions steadily decline -- despite the presence of several of his allies in the party's top leadership (see SOUTH AFRICA: Ramaphosa may struggle to push reforms - December 19, 2017).

In a sign of Ramaphosa's status as national president-in-waiting, the recent appointment of a new board at embattled state-owned power utility Eskom came at his, and not Zuma's, behest.

Similarly, since Ramaphosa's ascent, the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) and the elite Hawks police unit have belatedly begun to pursue legal cases against the controversial Gupta business family and their associates. One Gupta brother has been taken into custody for questioning, while Zuma's son, Duduzane, is reportedly being sought.

Party dynamics

Over the past month, Zuma has repeatedly tried to postpone his departure as internal and external pressures against him have increased (see SOUTH AFRICA: Zuma will face renewed ouster push - January 9, 2018).

On January 9, a day before an NEC meeting, Zuma caught his opponents off guard by belatedly announcing the formation of a state judicial commission of inquiry into 'state capture' (corruption).

Nevertheless, almost two weeks later, the NEC resolved that Zuma must step down, without setting a date. The party's newly elected National Working Committee (NWC), increasingly dominated by Ramaphosa supporters, echoed the NEC resolution but stated that Zuma must resign before the scheduled State of the Nation Address (SONA) on February 8.

On February 4, the NWC's decision was relayed to Zuma by the party's top six officials, but he refused to budge.

This led to the calling of an emergency NEC meeting to take place a day prior to SONA. Aware that he was likely to be recalled, Zuma agreed with Ramaphosa that both events should be postponed pending negotiations on his departure.

However, despite initially agreeing to resign, Zuma delayed once more, prompting this week's emergency NEC meeting where he unsuccessfully requested an additional three to six months in office. The NEC refused and have given Zuma until the end of today to resign.

Power shift

Ramaphosa's allies wanted Zuma to depart before SONA so Ramaphosa could set the new administration's priorities ahead of next year's pivotal election and reorient the government's fiscal priorities.

Key issues for Ramaphosa include an overhaul of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), reassuring rating agencies of the National Treasury's budgetary targets and improving the investment climate in the mining industry (see SOUTH AFRICA: Mining sector turmoil could worsen - December 18, 2017).

Balancing ANC demands for land expropriation without compensation with business-friendly measures will also be a major challenge (see SOUTH AFRICA: Zuma will reaffirm populist land push - May 4, 2017).

Ramaphosa and his allies also feared that Zuma might have announced unexpected fiscal commitments in SONA, such as controversial proposed Russian-built nuclear facilities.

In December, Zuma went against the findings of a government-commissioned report and promised free higher education for students from poor and working-class families (to be phased in over five years).

This announcement was made apparently without consulting his cabinet. Despite an estimated tax revenue shortfall of over 50.8 billion rand (4.3 billion dollars) for the 2017/18 fiscal year, Minister of Finance Malusi Gigaba subsequently stated that funding would be found for the measures.

Opposition dynamics

Since Ramaphosa's ascent, opposition parties have struggled to counter the positive reception to him at home and abroad.

The Democratic Alliance (DA), the main national opposition which governs Western Cape province and the City of Cape Town metropolitan municipality, has also been grappling with a major water crisis following Cape Town's worst drought in a century (see SOUTH AFRICA: Water crisis could threaten opposition - January 29, 2018). This has occurred simultaneously with a corruption scandal involving its mayor of Cape Town.

However, the ANC leadership crisis has given renewed impetus to the DA and the populist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). Both called for SONA to be postponed pending Zuma's departure, while the EFF succeeded in scheduling a motion of 'no confidence' in parliament for February 22. They subsequently requested that this be be brought forward to this week.

To avoid having to support an opposition motion, the ANC is hoping to amend the EFF's motion; a vote could occur as early as February 15. The ANC chief whip has stated that the party is aiming to install Ramaphosa as president in the coming days, with both SONA and the budget presentation to take place in the coming week.

Exit procedures

A no confidence motion requires a simple majority -- 50% plus one -- to remove the president. The ANC has 249 seats (62%) in the 400-seat National Assembly. While it is estimated that around one-third of the caucus may still implicitly support Zuma, with opposition backing Ramaphosa's supporters nonetheless likely have a clear majority.

Should this succeed, Zuma and his cabinet (including Ramaphosa) must resign. This, in theory, would give Ramaphosa a clean slate to appoint a new cabinet after his likely election by the National Assembly.

Another method to remove Zuma is impeachment, which requires a two-thirds majority. However, rules governing this are under amendment and this is only likely to be pursued as a last resort.

Outlook

While Zuma may still try to delay his departure, his authority has evaporated. Further attempts to stay in post could prompt mass popular protests.

Zuma reportedly attempted to negotiate with Ramaphosa over certain fiscal and security guarantees, including potentially covering his future legal costs.

However, despite speculation he might try to secure immunity from prosecution -- Zuma has 783 outstanding corruption charges against him -- the constitution would not permit Ramaphosa as president to interfere with NPA cases. Furthermore, a reported plea bargain deal may also not be legally possible.

In the short-to-medium term, Zuma's influence will linger across the ANC and state institutions, including SOEs and the intelligence services (see SOUTH AFRICA: Poor leadership will hamper policing - January 15, 2018). Zuma-aligned figures also make up a sizeable portion of the NEC and the ANC's provincial structures.

Ramaphosa may thus have to retain some Zuma allies in government, potentially making Dlamini-Zuma a minister. Engineering a national economic rebound may ultimately prove a more realistic goal for Ramaphosa than reforming the ruling party.