Analysis

Church authorities have voiced concerns about the risks faced by priests and nuns in remote areas under the control of criminal organisations, citing a rise in offences including:

• censorship imposed by drug lords;
• acts of extortion;
• death threats;
• physical attacks; and
• murder.

During the government of President Felipe Calderon, 13 priests were killed. That has risen to at least 24 under President Enrique Pena Nieto (a number of apparent victims are also missing).

Church leaders have compiled a list of nearly 70 attempted murders, 850 cases of extortion and two bomb attacks (both in the diocese of Matamoros in Tamaulipas).

Church figures demand more be done to prevent the crimes and bring perpetrators to justice, with Bishop of Monterrey Alfonso Miranda Guardiola claiming that nearly 80% of priests' killings result in impunity.

According to Father Omar Sotelo of the Catholic Multimedia Centre (CCM), analysis of these crimes, and in particular of those ending in assassination, has revealed a 'modus operandi' -- by targeting, kidnapping and torturing priests, criminal groups seek to spread fear and assert territorial control.

The strategy differs from past traditions of violence in deeply Catholic Mexico -- a taboo appears to have been broken.

Guerrero leadership

In the state of Guerrero, power vacuums, militarised policing policies and an opium cultivation boom have created conditions of intractable violence (see MEXICO: Acapulco to see security drive - February 17, 2016 and see MEXICO: Murder rates set to rise pre-election - January 15, 2018) in which both religious and political figures are targets of violence:

• Since campaigning began ahead of July's general election, at least twelve political figures have been murdered in the state.
• Priests and nuns have become compelled to negotiate the terms of their presence in many areas and, in others, conditions have become too dangerous for priests to be based there permanently.

The latter issue has forced the church to expand the archdiocese of Chilpancingo, to include Chilapa and Ciudad Altamirano in Tierra Caliente. It has also made members of the clergy in the area acutely aware of the need to communicate with criminal organisations.

Since the assassination of priests Ivan Anorve and Germain Muniz Garcia on the Taxco-Chilpancingo motorway in February, Chilpancingo-Chilapa Bishop Salvador Rangel has stepped up efforts to approach criminal leaders on behalf of political actors.

Recognising that criminal groups are part of the social fabric, Rangel has insisted on the need to assess openings for dialogue and negotiation. He has pursued such strategies with some success, for example seeing water and electricity supplies resumed in the community of Pueblo Viejo in Guerrero, after 45 days of interruption.

Rangel's position seems in keeping with that of AMLO, whose security policy plans are still vague but who has slammed the militarised strategies of the government and strongly hinted at the possibility of amnesties for certain criminals (see see MEXICO: Prospect of a ‘pax narco’ could swing election - July 6, 2017).

Rangel has not called for, nor endorsed, a general criminal amnesty, but his promotion of dialogue and the use of selective, alternative or limited sanctions in dealing with criminals has made him a target of mounting criticism by both the federal and state governments.

Guerrero Governor Hector Astudillo of Mexico's ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) has stressed that criminals should face the full force of the law, while national Secretary of the Interior Alfonso Navarrete has rejected any suggestion of negotiating with criminals.

Others have questioned the moral foundations of Rangel's strategies, warning that they will lead to amnesties and impunity, or criticised the intervention and participation of religious figures in political matters.

The church responds

The Mexican Episcopal Conference has stressed emphatically that priests cannot abandon their communities. However, the need for a new approach to security is clear and, in the face of such grave danger to its members, the church is becoming increasingly vocal:

• Rangel's insistence on the need for dialogue is supported by the vast majority of church authorities;
• Sotelo has urged the government to acknowledge the problem;
• priests from Acapulco, Chilpancingo, Chilapa and Monterrey have condemned government attempts to criminalise their colleagues who had been killed; and
• clerics in Veracruz and Puebla have denounced the levels of violence and prevailing vacuums of power in their jurisdictions.

Religious experts have said that, in a context in which criminal organisations are already de facto political players and the rule of law is absent, efforts at dialogue may be necessary in the cause of peace.

Engaging in dialogue and negotiation can lend criminal actors legitimacy, but most proponents of such strategies deny that they might lead to criminal organisations gaining legal status of any kind.

Peace-building prospects

Debates on this issue look set to characterise Mexican politics for the foreseeable future. AMLO has been slammed by his opponents for his position on security, and was widely deemed to have defended it badly during the first televised election debate.

He nevertheless remains the strong favourite to win the election on July 1, after which he will have to develop concrete security proposals and spell out how exactly they will be implemented.

The peace-building experts of the Church will be invaluable in formulating a strategy that works. In AMLO's efforts to bring down Mexico's soaring rates of violence, the clergy may prove every bit as important as the security forces.