Zimbabwe's ZANU-PF faces growing opposition challenge
The ruling party may have a fight on its hands in next week's election
The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights noted with concern yesterday the increasing number of reports of "voter intimidation, threats of violence" and "harassment and coercion" ahead of Zimbabwe's July 30 polls. The country's first elections since November's ouster of former President Robert Mugabe appear likely to be more competitive than initially anticipated. A freer campaign environment has seen the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) Alliance presidential candidate Nelson Chamisa move into close contention with incumbent President Emmerson Mnangagwa.
What next
The latest polls show Chamisa with considerable momentum, potentially even having a slight advantage over Mnangagwa. With 23 registered presidential candidates, a run-off contest is increasingly likely. ZANU-PF is unlikely to be willing to cede power, potentially forcing it into desperate strategies to manipulate or overturn the result. While levels of intimidation in rural areas are likely to increase, visible violence in the capital Harare is less probable.
Subsidiary Impacts
- A narrow defeat for either side would likely prompt public protests and increase support for a transitional government of national unity.
- A decisive first-round win or power-sharing arrangement would find favour with international actors and likely boost the economy.
- Fears will persist that some 275,000 problematic voters' roll entries could be used by a partisan electoral commission to break a close tie.
Analysis
Afrobarometer on July 20 released its final pre-election survey results, which showed a surge in support for Chamisa from 31% in early May to 37% in early July. Conversely, Mnangagwa saw his support decrease from 42% to 40%. The MDC Alliance may well have continued to increase its support while the campaign ramped up later this month.
While 20% of respondents refused to answer or are undecided, a significant portion of these are believed to be likely Chamisa voters.
Unpopular administration
This leaves the MDC Alliance at a small advantage or presages a second-round run-off election if neither candidate reaches 50% plus one of the vote. Support for other parties is at 3%, making them potential spoilers in a close contest.
The continuing fiscal crisis and currency shortages have hurt Mnangagwa's campaign, with his economic promises seen as less credible than Chamisa's.
According to Afrobarometer, just 32% of people see Mnangagwa as the best person to create jobs and grow the economy, as opposed to 42% for Chamisa (see ZIMBABWE: New government will cement ZANU-PF hold - December 8, 2017 and see ZIMBABWE: Economic rebound faces multiple hurdles - April 16, 2018).
An earlier April poll found that 62% of Zimbabweans felt that the country was going in the wrong direction, and 63% blamed the ruling ZANU-PF government for this (see ZIMBABWE: Military will entrench influence - January 18, 2018).
Energised opposition
Despite ZANU-PF's significant financial advantages, MDC Alliance rallies have been marked by large attendances and popular enthusiasm.
With greater operating freedom for the 2018 campaign as part of ZANU-PF's attempts to bolster the poll's legitimacy, the Alliance's door-to-door campaigning appears to be paying dividends.
Chamisa is an ordained pastor and a talented orator, with his speeches heavy on religious symbolism. With more than half of the population under 25 and 43.5% of registered voters under 35, the 40-year-old has repeatedly attacked the 75-year-old Mnangagwa for his advanced age.
Despite being criticised in the media for outlandish electoral promises (notably, bullet trains), Chamisa appears to be increasingly popular with the electorate.
Vice President Constantine Chiwenga recently adopted one of Chamisa's promises regarding the building of fly-overs and 'spaghetti roads' (traffic interchanges) in Harare, suggesting ZANU-PF feels under pressure to ramp up its own election promises.
Nevertheless, the MDC's prospects in the parliamentary election are weaker. While ZANU-PF support at 41% to the MDC's 36% suggests a competitive race, ZANU-PF has a greater ground game and support with registered voters. Part of this is likely attributable to opposition fractionalisation.
Opposition fractionalisation may hurt the MDC Alliance
A breakaway group led by former MDC Vice-President Thokozani Khupe threatens to split the opposition vote by running 110 parliamentary candidates. Khupe's faction has retained the MDC party name and symbol, something which may confuse many opposition voters.
The MDC Alliance is also running competing candidates in twelve constituencies. In the opposition strongholds of Bulawayo and Harare, there is an average of 17 and 11 candidates respectively for every parliamentary seat.
Additionally, several popular parliamentary candidates (and at least one sitting MDC MP) have opted to run as independents after shambolic party primaries.
Lacklustre campaign
While Mnangagwa is estimated to be outspending his rivals by 50:1, his campaign performance has been poor. On July 7, a video emerged showing soldiers beating people for leaving a ZANU-PF rally early while Mnangagwa was apparently speaking.
An ostensible grenade attack on a party rally in Bulawayo last month is believed to have been the result of tensions both within ZANU-PF and between ZANU-PF and the military (see ZIMBABWE: Mnangagwa will try ease instability fears - June 25, 2018).
Chaotic party primaries in April saw several Mnangagwa allies lose contests, with re-runs later scheduled due to 'irregularities'. While party leaders have preached unity, internal divisions persist.
Former military chief and key coup leader Chiwenga has taken on an increasingly prominent role in the campaign, raising fears that a weak Mnangagwa faces a heightened risk of a future 'palace coup'. Several military figures reportedly see Mnangagwa as a one-term president, eventually making way for Chiwenga.
Mnangagwa's allies also fear that the unresolved tensions between the former 'Generation 40' or 'G40' faction aligned to Mugabe and its supporters could undermine their candidate's election bid.
Alleged Mugabe loyalist and former Provincial Minister Webster Shamu last week urged voters to opt for ZANU-PF at the parliamentary level, but to vote with their conscience for the presidency. Former Information Minister Jonathan Moyo, another Mugabe ally (now in exile), has explicitly called on his followers to vote for Chamisa.
Meanwhile, former G40 supporters created the National Patriotic Front in May. While there has been speculation of a backroom deal, a formal coalition with Chamisa has not emerged.
Tainted commission
The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) has been rocked by several scandals recently, with ZEC Chair Priscilla Chigumba accused of partisanship towards Mnangagwa and ZANU-PF (see SOUTHERN AFRICA: Ruling parties will preach reform - April 3, 2018).
Earlier this month, videos emerged of police voting in Bulawayo in front of their supervisors, more than two weeks before the polls, and in the absence of ZEC and election observers. Finally, controversy has erupted over the format of the ballot and the voters' roll.
Contrary to the constitution, the election ballot features two columns; Mnangagwa's face is positioned at the top of the right-hand column in what is widely believed to be an attempt to give ZANU-PF an unfair advantage.
Furthermore, two recent audits of the voters' roll have flagged potentially substantial irregularities, including an estimated 122,788 'statistically improbable' voter ID numbers.
The ZEC's credibility has been undermined by several scandals
Concerns persist that ZEC has continued to change the voters' roll recently after it refused to give an updated or printed version to civil society groups or opposition parties.
The ZEC has, under MDC pressure, agreed to have polling station results posted outside stations and to have the usual position of polling booths retained, after fears that electoral officials would be able to observe voters' making their choice.
Nevertheless, fears persist over a lack of transparency with regards to results transmission, where many elections are won and lost. The absence of effective party agents and domestic monitors could provide ZANU-PF with a back door to exploit if they need to.
