Harder US stance on UN is likely
Trump’s next pick for UN ambassador comes alongside a new foreign policy team that promotes ‘America First’
On October 9, Nikki Haley made public her resignation from the post of US ambassador to the UN. Haley has been a staunch public defender of President Donald Trump’s foreign policy at the UN and an influential presidential adviser, helping to advance Trump’s ‘America First’ agenda, including its scepticism of multilateral bodies.
What next
Haley will leave office at the end of this year. Her successor will need to be confirmed by the US Senate. Timing is a factor: the November 6 midterm elections could produce a Democratic Senate majority that could frustrate confirmation if it is not complete when the new Congress convenes in January 2019 (though currently it seems unlikely the Democrats will win the Senate). More broadly, a further toughening of the Trump approach to the UN is likely post-Haley.
Subsidiary Impacts
- Haley could be Trump’s vice-presidential running-mate in 2020 or run for the presidency herself in 2024.
- Haley may be appointed to other Trump administration roles later, perhaps in a second term.
- Iran and China will face further pressure from the Trump administration, including via the UN.
- Pressure on UN members to support harsher sanctions on Iran will increase.
Analysis
Before Trump nominated Haley as UN ambassador (she was confirmed 96-4 by the Senate) she was the Republican governor of South Carolina and, before that, a state legislator. Haley did not always agree with Trump's policy positions, not least on Russia, where she sometimes advocated a harder line, but advised in-private discussion to resolve policy differences.
The publicly stated reason for her departure, in the October 9 joint Oval Office appearance with Trump, was a desire to take a break from public life and go into the private sector. Nonetheless, there has been speculation that controversy over gender issues revealed during the recent confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh might be the reason Haley or Trump announced her departure now (see UNITED STATES: Kavanaugh will start Court work today - October 9, 2018).
However, in the Oval Office Trump explained his announcement with Haley as his method of paying her the public compliments he felt she deserved. For her part, Haley aired strong support for Trump while explaining her departure was also the result of a belief in public office term limits (official or de facto).
Haley also quashed speculation that she resigned to run for president in 2020 against Trump when she confirmed that she will campaign for him that year. Even so, leaving the Trump team on good terms and with his endorsement could stand Haley in good political stead later.
Haley is likely to return to frontline politics, as a campaigner or candidate
New role or new running-mate?
Trump said Haley could have her pick of position if she returns to public service via the administration, and that he will maintain communication with her and take her policy advice after she leaves office at the end of this year.
Conceivably, Trump could pick Haley as his running-mate in 2020, replacing Vice President Mike Pence. Neither Trump nor Haley has suggested this, but Haley could appeal to voter constituencies that could help Republicans, including women and ethnic minorities. Haley is also well regarded among her Republican colleagues.
Equally, Pence appeals strongly to the religious right and more conservative Republicans -- constituencies Trump needs in 2020, so his replacement is hardly guaranteed (see UNITED STATES: Pence policy importance likely to grow - August 2, 2018). Regardless, Haley's experience as governor and UN ambassador, alongside her appeal to the various constituencies, would make her a useful campaigner in 2020.
Successor required
Haley has seen some loss of influence within the administration since John Bolton (the US ambassador to the UN under former President George W Bush) became Trump's national security advisor, and since Mike Pompeo replaced Rex Tillerson as a more assertive secretary of state (see UNITED STATES: Foreign policy faces domestic pressures - September 19, 2018).
It was perhaps notable that while Haley in her Oval Office appearance praised Ivanka Trump and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner for their current foreign policy work (in Kushner's case on the Middle East), she made no mention of Pompeo, Bolton or their predecessors.
Trump said he hopes to announce his nomination for Haley's successor in two to three weeks from now, with five names on a shortlist that may include:
- Dina Powell, the Egyptian-born former deputy national security advisor for strategy in Trump's first year who also served George W Bush and is now a senior banker and academic;
- Ivanka Trump, Trump's daughter and presidential adviser, though Trump has said that appointing her to the UN ambassador role would appear nepotistic; and
- Richard Grenell, the US ambassador in Germany and former longest serving US director of communications and public diplomacy at the UN, acting as spokesman for consecutive US ambassadors including Bolton.
Powell appears to be the front-runner due to her experience, and potentially also because of her gender and immigrant background -- Trump's administration has been criticised by some for being 'male-dominated' and 'white'.
If Grenell is chosen, it would point to Bolton's White House influence. Grenell would be more likely to revive the more adversarial relationship the United States had with UN members and the institution itself during the Bush years (2001-09).
Yet whoever the next ambassador, they will have to work with Pompeo and Bolton successfully to maintain the same prominence Haley had as UN ambassador, and Trump's new foreign policy team is committed to his 'America First' vision, including its scepticism over multilateral bodies (see US/INT: World order will endure, for now - September 25, 2018).
Tasks facing the next ambassador
The next appointee will likely be required to preside over a hardening of US positions at the UN on various issues including UN utility, reform and funding; the sanctions regime against Iran; defending Israel against UN General Assembly criticism; and the perceived security threats posed to the United States and the globe by China.
When Trump addressed the UN General Assembly on September 25 he touched on these areas. Trump argued that his administration has successfully asserted US strength globally, a point reiterated by Haley during her resignation announcement.
Taking this 'America First' thrust forward will be high on the next ambassador's agenda, and it will likely mean taking a robust attitude towards the UN when needed, as Haley did on occasion.
Trump also projected the intent to consolidate his administration's 'peace through strength' approach, including military build-up and adopting a tough international trade strategy. This, he said, is working regarding North Korea, the country that was the subject of his 2017 UN address.
The next US ambassador to the UN will be taking forward the 'America First' policy push
The president also set his sights on Iran and US efforts to prevent resumption of Tehran's nuclear programme through sustained sanctions and to contain its alleged regional ambitions. The main difference in rhetorical approach was the more general condemnation Trump made of Iran's leaders compared with the personalised demonisation of North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong-un in 2017.
In addition, when chairing the UN Security Council at last month's UN meetings, Trump strongly criticised China, including accusing it of US election meddling.
