UK no-confidence vote brings a general election closer

Analysis

There was optimism among May supporters that party opposition to the prime minister would be contained within 100 votes. However, 117 votes against (over one-third of the parliamentary party) underscores the lack of support for the withdrawal agreement weeks before it is due to go to Parliament (see UNITED KINGDOM/EU: Brexit could see party break-up - November 16, 2018).

May's concession that she will not seek re-election as leader of the Conservative Party partly explains why the number of votes against her was so high. Many Conservative backbench MPs will hope that May steps down once Article 50 has been triggered, currently scheduled for March 29.

Stronger May

There is a possibility that a weaker May at home could strengthen her influence in the EU to obtain legal and political concessions on the Irish backstop -- the source of substantial opposition to May's Brexit deal.

Indeed, a much more emphatic victory might have tempted the EU to offer a little more in terms of supplementary language to the current withdrawal agreement, in the belief that May had sufficient domestic strength to get the deal through Parliament.

However, given the potential consequences of a deal being rejected by Parliament, such as a general election and a divergent Brexit strategy with a new leader who might adopt a hardline stance with the EU, this could be Brussels' last opportunity to safeguard the current withdrawal agreement.

Weaker May

It is more likely that the EU will only produce language which adds more emphasis to the 'future framework' element of the agreement. Here it could stress that the EU wants to move swiftly to conclude the negotiations on a free trade arrangement and is committed to avoiding a situation in which the United Kingdom has to enter the backstop arrangement to avoid a hard border between itself and Ireland.

This is of some value to May in her efforts to suppress domestic dissent on the withdrawal agreement, but will not be enough to alter sufficiently the parliamentary arithmetic against the withdrawal agreement.

Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) -- which props up the Conservative Party in government and wants to erase the backstop from the agreement -- could have been more comfortable, if May lost a more substantial number of votes. That would have forced May to resign or dramatically change her Brexit strategy.

However, the result means she will persist with the current withdrawal agreement, which could force the DUP to withdraw its support for the Conservative Party and trigger the government's collapse.

May's persistence with the current withdrawal agreement will increase the pressure from smaller opposition parties on the Labour Party to table a parliamentary motion of no confidence in the government. If the vote is successful, it will represent the end of her leadership and her Brexit strategy.

In addition, it appears that the no-confidence vote has deepened divisions in the Conservative Party, with hardline MPs increasing calls for May to resign.

Towards March 29

May could embrace two limited tactics in an attempt to preserve her political survival.

The short game

She could wait until early January before putting the deal to Parliament, as it will potentially give her some time to reduce the opposition against the withdrawal agreement.

She could offer a stronger parliamentary mechanism to allow MPs more influence in June 2020 over the choice between entering the backstop, or opting for a further extension of the transition period.

She could ask the EU to spell out explicitly its own determination to avoid the backstop by making firm commitments regarding the future EU-UK relationship.

Finally, she could make a more explicit pledge about the timetable for her own departure that will focus on 2019.

The long game

The government could hope that by delaying the vote it will raise concerns about a no-deal Brexit or no Brexit at all. This could force MPs to accept that the realistic choice is between a slightly amended deal, a no-deal Brexit or the risk that Brexit will not occur.

If May's Brexit becomes the only plausible scenario to save Brexit or avoid a no-deal, there will likely be moves by MPs to consider a 'plan B' (see EU/UK: Longer Brexit may be needed despite deal hopes - November 5, 2018).

Firstly, there could be a move to extend Article 50 and allow time for a 'managed' no-deal Brexit.

Secondly, momentum could strengthen for a 'Norway Plus' agreement, which would see the United Kingdom joining the European Free Trade Association and through it the European Economic Area. This could be supplemented with a temporary customs arrangement with the EU that shadows the customs union for the duration of the arrangement.

The latter has some backing from different sections in Conservative Party as a temporary solution, albeit for widely diverse reasons. It is not an option that May has thus far entertained. It would result in the United Kingdom complying with the EU principle of freedom of movement, which would contradict one of the prime minister's vital 'red lines'.

Momentum within the Conservative Party to establish a divergent Brexit strategy to May's would more likely put significant political pressure on her to resign.

Outlook

In effect, the result of the no-confidence vote indicates that the prime minister has until mid-January to formulate a new version of the withdrawal agreement, augmented by a hardened statement on her own future, that will be enough to get her deal through Parliament.

If she is not successful, it is hard to envisage her willingly giving up on her current Brexit strategy, and she is likely to be forced to step down through pressure from her own cabinet or a parliamentary no-confidence vote.

A new Conservative Party cabinet would lack an electoral mandate to shape Brexit. Moreover, frontrunners to replace May as Conservative Party leader include MPs who have said a no deal is better than the current withdrawal agreement.

Given the parliamentary majority against a no-deal or hard Brexit, the government may have no alternative but to call a general election (see PROSPECTS 2019: United Kingdom - November 29, 2018).