Analysis

Spiralling inflation, twin fuel and power crises and related shortages of supplies have prompted rising public dissatisfaction at President Emmerson Mnangagwa's administration (see ZIMBABWE: Economic pressures will linger - June 20, 2019).

In turn, the authorities have overseen a renewed security clampdown, with state-sponsored violence taking a severe toll on Zimbabwe's re-engagement strategy.

Cost of living

Official annual inflation surged to 175.66% in June. Soon after these figures were announced, Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube ordered a six-month blackout on publishing further data. Officially, this is to take account of changes earlier this year from a multi-currency regime to a new, de facto local currency, the 'Zimbabwean dollar' (see ZIMBABWE: Currency plan will struggle for credibility - June 26, 2019).

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Ncube stated inflation merely reflected "wage compression". However, unofficial independent projections puts inflation at approximately 570% -- the second highest in the world after Venezuela.

Unsurprisingly, wages have not kept apace and many of the country's 400,000 civil servants now reportedly earn below the World Bank poverty line of 1.9 dollars a day. There are shortages of key medicines, food, water and fuels, and what is being sold in stores is largely unaffordable.

On August 17, the Zimbabwe Hospitals Doctors Association demanded a salary increase and announced their intention to embark on a strike action within 21 days.

Interlocking crises

Such escalating pressures on citizens come alongside a devastating drought, which the UN recently declared the country's worst-ever hunger crisis. A projected 5.5 million people, some 60% of rural population, will be food insecure by early 2020.

Electricity is also in short supply due to the drought and high debts to South African state-owned power utility, Eskom, which recently led to power being switched off for up to 18 hours a day. This has hit businesses and industry hard and will worsen the projected economic contraction this year, the first since 2008.

Ncube has said that austerity measures will remain in place until January 2020, when Harare plans to begin re-engaging with international lenders and settle its outstanding 9-billion-dollar debts. IMF Resident Representative Patrick Imam has said conditions are not yet in place for the fund to provide financial support to Zimbabwe.

Tightening grip

Fearful of a Sudan-style uprising, Mnangagwa's government has been attempting to dampen public dissent while simultaneously 'coup-proofing' the country's military (see ZIMBABWE: Rising authoritarianism will dent Mnangagwa - March 19, 2019).

There has been a consistent low-level crackdown in operation since early 2019, with many activists abducted, beaten, arrested and facing questionable charges. The government has unsuccessfully tried to distance itself from the violence, blaming much of it on an unidentified 'third force'.

On August 13, Mnangagwa promised salary increases for the military and other benefits to cushion them against rising inflation. This follows reshuffles within the military earlier this year and a spending spree in June, which saw the army reportedly purchase water cannons, teargas and thousands of new guns -- including nearly 3,500 new assault rifles and 300 sniper rifles.

In addition, a large number of police officers have been undergoing paramilitary-style training in preparation for unrest.

In early August, the opposition MDC-T and their allies announced a series of marches to force the government to address the economic crisis, beginning on August 16 in Harare. Other marches were scheduled for Bulawayo on August 19, Gweru on August 20, Masvingo on August 21 and Mutare on August 22.

In the days ahead of the planned Harare protests, reports emerged of a spate of abductions and torture of opposition and civil society actors, with at least six activists and opposition members abducted and tortured.

While the MDC-T submitted the required documents for their protest two weeks in advance, the authorities banned the march on August 15, a decision which was later upheld by the High Court on the morning of August 16 (see ZIMBABWE: Banned protests will damage government image - August 16, 2019). However, a few hundred people nevertheless gathered in the city centre.

As with the brutal crackdowns of protests earlier this year, and post-poll protests after the general election in August 2018, police responded by violently attacking and rounding up protesters.

NGOs report that over 128 people were arrested, and twelve people required medical attention following beatings and torture. Since then, several more activists and opposition leaders have been arrested, including eight MDC-T leaders in Bulawayo.

International response

This latest clampdown will deepen the concern in Western capitals that Harare is reverting to type and does not seriously intend to reform politically. Economic normalisation now appears to be even more unlikely.

In March, US President Donald Trump extended by a year sanctions on top military figures and some government-owned companies (see ZIMBABWE: Deep militarisation will undermine reform - March 5, 2019). Earlier this month, the US government also added the former head of the presidential guard -- Anselm Sanyatwe -- to the sanctions list for his alleged role in last year's post-election killings.

The EU's delegation to Zimbabwe has condemned the latest protest bans, and expressed concern about the intimidation, harassment and torture of political activists. This was echoed by similar condemnations by the US Embassy in Harare, US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Tibor Nagy and the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights.

Regionally, however, Harare has received tacit support.

At the latest SADC Heads of State and Government meeting in Dar es Salaam last week, new SADC Chairperson, Tanzanian President John Magufuli, reiterated calls for international sanctions against Zimbabwe to be dropped.

Similarly, despite the ongoing crackdown, Mnangagwa was elected chairperson of SADC's regional organ for politics, defence and security.

Given the enhanced importance of Mnangagwa and Magufuli within SADC, the organisation will almost certainly refrain from any overt criticism of Harare's actions over the short term; in advance of the summit, the Tanzanian security forces reportedly detained and interrogated 48 activists -- including Zimbabweans -- who had travelled to the country to make representations.