Analysis

The NRC was established in 1951 in Assam, which at that time was larger than it is today and abutted China, Myanmar and the eastern wing of the recently created Pakistan. Its main purpose was to register citizens for independent India's first general election in 1951-52.

Although the register fell into abeyance, an influx of people from Bangladesh, the former East Pakistan that gained independence from the Pakistani state in 1971 after a war, prompted many in Assam to seek curbs on immigration to the state.

In 1983, the Congress party, in power nationally at the time, passed an Illegal Migrants (Determination by Tribunals) or IMDT Act to identify and expel illegal immigrants from Assam, as part of efforts to calm restive sentiment there. Since the onus was on the accuser to prove a suspect's 'foreignness', rather than on the accused to prove citizenship, deportation levels were low.

NRC updating

The NRC has been revived through a combination of judicial interventionism and political opportunism.

In 2005, the Supreme Court struck down the IMDT Act following a challenge by Assamese politician Sarbananda Sonowal, agreeing that the legislation was an impediment to deporting illegal immigrants. In 2013, it ordered the NRC to be updated. The move was spearheaded by Assamese Justice Ranjan Gogoi, who became chief justice late last year.

The NRC update has, since the start of the process in 2015, taken place under the Supreme Court's authority rather than that of the federal or state government.

The BJP has long supported the exercise as a means of allying with local (anti-immigrant) parties in Assam against Congress (see INDIA: Modi will take tougher line on immigration - August 15, 2018). The BJP and its partners ousted Congress from power in the 2016 state election, when Sonowal became Assam's first BJP chief minister. Modi's party won nine out of 14 parliamentary seats in Assam in this year's general election, up from seven in 2014.

In its new form, the register required Assam's residents to provide documentary evidence of a familial connection to India prior to March 24, 1971, when Bangladesh declared independence and the country's nine-month liberation war began.

An initial draft released last year excluded some 4.1 million residents. The number is down to some 1.9 million in this year's final version. Those not on the register, most of whom are probably Bengali-speaking Muslims, have 120 days to appeal to special tribunals.

The state government is building more detention centres, of which there are currently just six. Reports suggest that people excluded from the NRC are among the labourers employed for the work.

CAB tangle

While the NRC represents a hard line on (Muslim) immigration to the north-east, the BJP is effectively encouraging increased Hindu immigration.

The Citizenship Act 1955 has been amended several times. It initially focused on residence before being broadened to include criteria such as descent.

The BJP-led federal government says it will again try to pass an amendment it proposed in 2016, which would make it easier for non-Muslim illegal migrants from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Bangladesh to apply for Indian citizenship. Modi's party was forced to shelve the bill in February, prior to this year's general election, due to pressure from its allies in Assam and other north-eastern states.

The BJP's partners in the north-east are no more in favour of Bengali-speaking Hindu migrants than they are of Bengali-speaking Muslim migrants. Shah recently told Mizoram state's chief minister and local NGOs that Mizoram, along with Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh states, will be safeguarded from what Mizo activists described as "foreign infiltrators" in the proposed legislation.

Attempts to define (or redefine) Indian citizenship raise legal quandaries. By reducing citizenship possibilities for Muslims, the proposed CAB appears to violate one of the basic principles of India's constitution, which outlaws religious discrimination.

The legislation would face judicial challenges, even if passed by parliament.

Waning enthusiasm

Shah's comments about implementing the NRC beyond Assam came at a seminar in West Bengal state's capital Kolkata. The home secretary insisted that the CAB would come before the NRC's extension to West Bengal, seeking to address concerns that Hindu immigrants to the state might be excluded from the register.

The BJP is keen to establish the NRC in West Bengal because it believes that the exercise will help it appeal to Hindu nationalist sentiment in a state where it has never governed but now hopes to come to power (see INDIA: Modi’s party will grow stronger in West Bengal - August 20, 2019). Some 27% of West Bengal's population is Muslim. Among India's states, only Assam (34%) and Jammu and Kashmir (68%) have a higher Muslim proportion.

The All India Trinamool Congress, which has ruled West Bengal since 2011, insists that it will resist the register.

Expanding the NRC may be risky for the BJP even in states more receptive to the idea. In Uttar Pradesh, where 19% of the population is Muslim, BJP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has previously expressed support for the NRC, but its implementation would very likely prompt widespread protests in the state, which is prone to outbreaks of inter-confessional violence.

Despite Shah's bullishness, there are signs that authorities at both federal and state level are seeking to play down the register's significance, not least because of controversy around its implementation in Assam. Several state governments have questioned whether the register is a matter of federal law or part of their individual prerogatives.

If the NRC leads to millions of people being declared stateless, it may violate international law.

Immigration problem?

A further factor that may militate against the NRC's nationwide implementation is that the exercise in Assam, India's most open-frontier-state, has demonstrated the relatively low level of immigration to the country. The 1.9 million people excluded (who may or may not have migrated to Assam in the last 48 years) only account for around 6% of the state's population.

The NRC largely serves rhetorical purposes for the BJP by helping it to 'discipline' the country's Muslims, at the risk of losing the community's trust (see INDIA: Modi’s outreach to Muslims will be cosmetic - July 31, 2019).

Modi's party is now unlikely to go beyond rhetoric in trying to extend the register beyond Assam, even if this disappoints some of its Hindu nationalist supporters.