UK opposition could block a December 12 election
On October 28, the government will table a vote to hold a general election on December 12
Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s call yesterday for a December 12 election has complicated deliberations in Brussels on the length of the extension to the Brexit process that the EU is prepared to offer. EU ambassadors had been hoping to agree a three-month extension today until January 31, but a decision will now be delayed until next week, pending a vote in the UK Parliament on October 28 to hold an early election.
What next
Some kind of extension is certain to be approved. A shorter period could be offered, but much depends on whether the UK government can win the vote to hold an election on December 12, and continue trying to pass the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) -- its Brexit legislation.
Subsidiary Impacts
- Further attempts to pass Brexit legislation in Parliament will depend on the support of a small number of opposition Labour MPs.
- Most of the EU is as keen as Johnson to 'get Brexit done' -- they no longer hold out much hope for a second referendum.
- It will be extremely difficult to agree a future trade deal before the end of a post-Brexit transition period in December 2020.
Analysis
On October 22, Parliament in principle supported the new UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement, but rejected the government's timetable of just three days to pass the WAB. This means that delivering Brexit by October 31 is no longer a possibility.
The question Johnson faced this week was whether to continue trying to push Brexit legislation through Parliament, or to opt for an early election.
In the end he has tried to do both, but neither are guaranteed. A budget that was due to be delivered on November 6 has been cancelled, and the government is offering MPs until November 6 to scrutinise the Brexit legislation as long as they vote in favour of holding an election on December 12.
Johnson hopes this plan will pay off. Either he can campaign having just delivered Brexit, or he can tell voters that he would have done so if Remain MPs had not thwarted him.
However, a December 12 election needs a two-thirds parliamentary majority and the government is unlikely to get enough of the opposition to support it. Moreover, there is division within the Conservative Party about whether it would be better to hold an election in December or wait until next year.
Brexit legislation
The WAB is one of the most consequential pieces of legislation in decades; MPs were never going to accept only three days to scrutinise it.
Despite offering MPs more time to scrutinise it, Johnson must calculate whether he can get the legislation passed.
The opposition will seek to undermine the government's Brexit deal by putting forward unacceptable amendments to the Brexit legislation
In gaining approval in principle for his deal, Johnson relied on the support of 19 Labour MPs, but a number of them want the legislation amended substantially before approving it.
That could include amendments calling for the United Kingdom to negotiate a new customs union with the EU after Brexit, and one which seeks to put the final deal to another referendum.
Another issue for Johnson to consider is that as the WAB comes under scrutiny, other issues will likely emerge which generate strong opposition, such as details of impediments to future trade between Northern Ireland and Great Britain (see UK-EU: A Northern Ireland-only deal could happen - September 17, 2019).
December election
Thus, the risk of a December 12 election for Johnson is that Brexit is unlikely to be resolved. He will have failed to live up to his flagship promise of delivering Brexit by October 31.
That makes him vulnerable to the Brexit Party, which will argue that Johnson should have left the EU with no deal on October 31.
Polls suggest Johnson has managed to consolidate much of the Leave vote; it now depends how many Leave voters he will lose for failing to deliver Brexit on October 31 (see UNITED KINGDOM: Working class may determine election - October 16, 2019).
If the Conservatives lose the election the chances of no Brexit will increase substantially
There is also the possibility that if Johnson lost the election, Brexit could never happen.
On the other hand, the government's main opponent, the Labour Party, is in disarray. Opinion polls suggest its leader Jeremy Corbyn is the most unpopular opposition leader since polling records began.
Corbyn has been underestimated before, and he performed far better than expected in the 2017 election.
Since then, however, Labour's Brexit strategy has come under increasing scrutiny, the party has faced accusations of institutional anti-Semitism, it now faces greater competition amid the resurgent Liberal Democrats and emergent Brexit Party, and Boris Johnson is more popular than Theresa May. Labour could be heading for its worst result in decades.
Given the probability that Labour will lose votes, many of its MPs are extremely reluctant to support a December election.
Moreover, Labour is also worried that Johnson's rushed electoral timetable, combined with the possibility of a short Brexit extension, could still create a no-deal Brexit by accident.
Other parliamentary routes to an election are available, but the government cannot dictate the terms alone. That is why the October 28 vote to call an election will probably fail.
If it does, the government says it will withdraw the WAB, and essentially go on strike by doing the bare minimum in Parliament to try to highlight its irrelevance. However, this could provoke strong criticism from Conservative MPs and is unlikely to be a sustainable option.
The government could 'go on strike' if MPs reject a December 12 election
The alternative plan for the government would be to push the WAB through Parliament if it can, albeit more slowly, and then try to hold an election in February or March.
Winter elections in the United Kingdom are rare and riskier, and many Conservative MPs argue that holding an election after leaving the EU is a much more attractive strategy.
There is also the possibility that the Scottish National Party could be embroiled in controversy by early 2020, because the trial of its former leader Alex Salmond -- who is facing charges of sexual assault -- is due to begin early next year.
Soft versus hard Brexit
On the other hand. the significant danger of a delayed election -- after Brexit has happened -- is that the opposition could turn it into a decision on whether voters back a hard Brexit under the Conservatives, or turn against them to support softer version of life outside the EU. Negotiations on the future relationship with the EU would only just be beginning, and Johnson has already made clear that he is seeking looser economic ties with the EU than Theresa May was.
The opposition would seek to exploit this and argue that the Conservatives cannot be trusted to protect workers' rights and environmental legislation. The realisation that negotiations on what Brexit means for the future are only just beginning could lead some voters to turn against Johnson.
A decision on whether to extend the post-Brexit transition period, during which the United Kingdom would continue to follow EU rules, is due to be made by July 2020. The current proposed transition ends in December 2020, but that will not be enough time to complete negotiations on a free trade agreement or other complex issues involving security cooperation and the exchange of data.
Opposition parties will likely emphasise the second phase of Brexit as an opportunity for voters to dislodge a hard Brexit government.
