Global travel deals will be subject to reversals
After months of border closures, many countries are implementing measures to restart global travel
Most European countries yesterday lifted the strictest travel restrictions related to COVID-19. The pandemic has seen an unprecedented reduction in global travel. Previously unthinkable travel bans and border closures have been implemented throughout the world in an attempt to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Many countries are now beginning to ease restrictions, aiming to achieve a new and sustainable normal. Travel is a crucial component of the global economy and the sector is restarting, but it faces major challenges.
What next
Outright travel bans are being replaced by periods of mandatory quarantines, testing of passengers on arrival, ‘travel bubbles’ and preferential treatment by country and city of departure. Measures will be country-specific, reflecting each country’s epidemic. Reciprocal arrangements between countries and groups of countries will expand. These measures are likely to be subject to short-notice changes. Importation of new COVID-19 cases is inevitable as some will go undetected. This could prompt localised lockdowns and temporary reversals in travel arrangements.
Subsidiary Impacts
- Domestic air travel will begin its recovery much ahead of international travel as it will not have to deal with border restrictions.
- Large outbreaks could lead to quarantines for individuals traveling to and from the affected country until control has been regained.
- Improvements in testing quality and capacity will significantly aid the global recovery process.
Analysis
By April, Pew Research estimated that over 90% of the world's population lived in countries that had imposed travel restrictions on arrivals from abroad. These measures aimed to reduce the importation of COVID-19 cases. This was important at the start of the epidemic, when imported cases had a disproportionate impact on the epidemic's growth.
The purpose of current travel restrictions is to prevent the net spread of infection from areas with high-level transmission to areas with low-level transmission, risking a 'second wave' of infections. The travel sector plays a vital role in many economies and tourism alone accounts for some 10% of global GDP (see INTERNATIONAL: Tourism will settle to a new normal - June 8, 2020). Consequently, travel restrictions involve important cost/benefit calculations.
Travel bans and quarantines
Travel bans completely remove travel as a contributor to the spread of the COVID-19. In contrast, quarantines allow travel to take place, but mandate that an individual stays in a designated location for a set period. For COVID-19, the standard is 14 days -- based on evidence that the time to develop symptoms (incubation time) is considered to be 2-14 days, with a median of five days (see INTERNATIONAL: Asymptomatics will hinder virus control - May 14, 2020).
Although two weeks of quarantine may be acceptable to long-term visitors/residents, this poses a significant barrier for short-term tourist and business travel. Countries wanting to increase tourist numbers are looking to remove quarantine requirements, though any quarantine faced by tourists when they return home is also problematic.
Bubbles and bridges
'Travel bubbles' and 'air bridges' refer to the bilateral removal of quarantine measures between countries. The concept was first mooted in the context of a potential 'trans-Tasman bubble' between Australia and New Zealand. The idea has been taken on by a number of other nations, including the Baltic bubble between Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which came into effect in mid-May. Nordic countries -- apart from Sweden -- and others in the Balkans and elsewhere are also implementing similar 'bubbles'.
Several factors make a country attractive to others for such arrangements -- most notably a low level of transmission/cases demonstrated by a reliable detection system.
Geography is important -- people are more likely to have family/work interests in nearby regions and in some instances, this may facilitate the use of personal vehicles. The economic value associated with visitors from certain countries and for specific purposes is also a consideration; Singapore is first focussing on developing 'green lanes' to allow essential business travel before looking at leisure travel.
Country 'travel bubbles' will expand over coming months
As more countries lower their cases and demonstrate consistent low transmission levels, the number and size of bubbles will rise. If cases significantly increase in some regions, this process is likely to be reversed.
Non-pharmacological interventions
In parallel with wider social efforts, basic public health and infection control measures are likely to be a feature of the travel sector for the foreseeable future.
These include a focus on frequent and high-quality hand washing, good respiratory hygiene, the use of face masks and regularly disinfecting surfaces. Social distancing will also be required in transport hubs and potential requirements for new seating arrangements could markedly reduce passenger capacity -- which would need to be built into future business models.
Personal safety will be an important consideration for passengers looking to travel, especially vulnerable individuals. This will be a focus as airlines attempt to increase operations, potentially involving the use of personal protective equipment, restriction of toilet access and a reduction in interactions such as food and beverages service.
Airlines may also look at installing screens, reviewing ventilation systems, increasing the use of biometrics and other innovative safety features.
Symptom-based screening
Early in the pandemic temperature checks were used widely -- however, many people with COVID-19 do not have fever, there are multiple other causes of fever and recording devices often lack sensitivity. Inability to detect pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic cases is problematic, as is the fact that anti-pyretic agents can mask symptoms.
Alongside temperature checks, health questionnaires have been used to detect symptoms. However, these suffer from similar issues and are labour-intensive. Symptomatic screening may have a role within a wider set of travel measures, but cannot be exclusively relied upon.
Testing
Testing passengers for current infection, either on arrival or in the days prior to departure, could potentially allow safe travel, though there remain issues with the sensitivity of the RT-PCR swab tests. False negatives could result in infected individuals not quarantining, and a person with a negative test may later become infectious due to the incubation period.
Additionally, individuals can test positive on a swab for weeks after COVID-19 recovery -- viral remnants are detected but it is thought this poses no risk of transmission.
Testing will be difficult to implement for mass travel
Although not perfect, testing can play an important role in risk reduction measures. Vienna airport is offering tests to passengers arriving and departing as a mechanism for avoiding quarantine, and Emirates was the first airline to conduct rapid, onsite testing. With regard to capacity, testing may be viable at current levels of international travel, but this may not be the case as travel begins to increase.
Countries may opt for a set number of random tests per flight (for higher risk countries, more or mandatory tests may be required) in order to remove the need for long quarantines. Greece is adopting this approach.
Immunity passports
Testing can also indicate who has already had the virus. One suggestion is that individuals shown to have antibodies could be allowed to travel freely -- there is a precedent with diseases such as yellow fever.
However, the level of protection afforded by COVID-19 antibodies, the length of time that any protection lasts and the role of these individuals as a vector for transmission remain unknowns. Alongside these questions, there are also significant ethical issues, including equality of access to tests, possible new forms of discrimination and a potential incentive to catch COVID-19.
