Analysis

The inclusion of SDG14 among the Sustainable Development Goals in 2015 was seen as recognition of the importance of marine biodiversity for sustainable development (see PROSPECTS 2021: SDGs outlook - November 13, 2020 and see INTERNATIONAL: Oceans may be key in climate struggle - October 11, 2019). Four of the eleven targets within SDG14 had a 2020 deadline (the others have 2025 or 2030 deadlines), but in all of these areas progress has fallen short.

Marine protected areas

The Biodiversity Convention (CBD) in 2010 set a goal for 10% of coastal and marine areas to be 'marine protected areas' (MPAs) by 2020; SDG14 replicated that target.

The UN estimates that coverage of only 7.65% was reached by the end of 2020, and this figure does not distinguish between degrees of protection. Fully protected areas are closed to all fishing and have the greatest conservation effectiveness, but make up less than 3% of the ocean. Partially protected areas still allow other activities, and more room for political compromises.

Around 40 countries have voiced support for a more ambitious goal of seeing 30% of the ocean protected by 2030; the United Kingdom has been a key proponent of this initiative. While the United States is not party to the CBD, President Joe Biden has committed to pursuing the 30% goal within US waters (around 26% of US waters are already protected).

This marine protection target is part of a new biodiversity framework to be agreed at the CBD conference originally due to be held in Kunming, China last year (see INTERNATIONAL: High seas biodiversity concerns to rise - September 26, 2019). A rescheduled date in 2021 has yet to be determined.

If adopted, the prospects of reaching the 30% goal will depend on finalising a new UN high seas biodiversity treaty, which was also due to be concluded in 2020. The 'high seas' (which lie beyond national boundaries) account for two-thirds of the ocean, but just 1.18% is protected (compared with 17.0% of national waters).

Treaty negotiations are intended to agree a process for establishing high seas MPAs, but still involve unresolved disputes on issues such as:

• the extent of environmental impact assessments required;
• the sharing of benefits of genetic resources with developing countries; and
• the roles to be played by regional management organisations.

Marine management

SDG14 aimed by 2020 to 'sustainably manage and protect marine ecosystems to avoid significant adverse impacts'. The main progress indicator here is the proportion of national waters that are subject to ecosystem-wide marine spatial planning. This, rather than sector-by-sector planning, aims to encompass all activities within an ocean 'space'. However, as the UN has not yet completed its first reporting cycle, there is no baseline by which to judge progress on the matter.

The profile of such planning efforts is growing. Fourteen countries under the High-Level Panel for a Sustainable Ocean Economy framework launched a joint commitment in December to develop 'sustainable ocean management plans' by 2025 to cover their entire Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs).

Panel members include Norway, Kenya, Chile, Canada and Fiji, accounting for 30% of the world's EEZs, but as an informal club of countries, they do not yet have defined processes by which to monitor and support implementation.

Fishery subsidy negotiations

Another SDG14 target for 2020 is to end subsidies that contribute to fishing overcapacity -- intensive fishing that depletes fish stocks, putting them at risk of collapse. WTO negotiations on this issue were among the diplomatic processes disrupted by the pandemic, but new WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iwela has highlighted the issue as one of her priorities this year.

Fishing subsides are estimated to be worth around USD35bn annually, with China, the EU and United States the largest subsidising territories. Some subsidies are judged to be beneficial, such as those aimed at supporting management and conservation efforts. However, most (worth around USD22bn) are 'capacity-enhancing'. These include fuel subsidies, which reduce fishers' operating costs, allowing ships to travel further and stay longer at sea. Such subsidies benefit industrial distant-water fleets more than small-scale fishers. Other capacity subsidies include support for boat construction, port upgrades and storage infrastructure.

A major area of disagreement on the phasing out of such subsidies centres on exemptions for developing countries. Tensions have emerged over the scope and duration of such exemptions, which are sensitive because of the fishery sector's role in providing employment.

Sustainable fishing

Better regulation of fishing and the end of overfishing by 2030 is another stated objective of SDG14. The Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) estimated the proportion of fish stocks within 'biologically sustainable levels' to be just 65.8% in 2017 (meaning 34.2% were being overfished). This is down from estimated sustainability of 90% in 1974.

To end overfishing completely is an ambitious goal, but the FAO sees signs of progress with more intensively managed fisheries seeing increases in stock biomass compared to those that are less managed.

Reducing overfishing pressures in international waters has proven challenging, not least because responsible regional management organisations usually work by consensus rather than majority votes. In the Indian Ocean, for example, yellowfin tuna has been assessed as overfished, but attempts to reach agreement on reducing fishing to levels that allow recovery have not yet been successful. The allocation of reduction quotas and the role of EU distant-water fishers have been areas of particular tension.

Global fish consumption is expected to rise by 18% between 2018 and 2030, as incomes grow, fishing technology improves and awareness of the health benefits of fish increases. This will exacerbate sustainability challenges.

Fish may also start to account for an increasing share of global animal protein consumption (it currently accounts for 17%), displacing proteins from industrial farming, especially of cattle, as climate concerns surrounding the latter increase. Aquaculture (rather than wild-capture) already accounts for more than half of global fish consumption. This is expected to increase further, but this carries its own environmental risks from pollution and coastal habitat degradation.

Despite growing political attention on the ocean, SDG14 goals look likely to go unmet. Increasing climate change impacts on the ocean, such as warming and deoxygenation, will intensify political debate over how to share marine resources.