Magufuli’s death offers limited reform opening

Analysis

Magufuli was a divisive figure. He was hugely popular among many Tanzanians, who appreciated that he followed through on his promises, stood up for the country's interests and dealt firmly with corruption (see TANZANIA: Local elections cast a shadow over democracy - December 16, 2019).

Conversely, opposition leaders and critics alleged his political success was founded on repression, that he manipulated his much-vaunted anti-corruption drive to marginalise rivals and that his policies undermined investor confidence (see TANZANIA: General election ushers in one-party state - November 5, 2020).

It was this combination of populist policy and clever strategy that enabled the man popularly known as 'the Bulldozer' to impose a degree of discipline on a party known for rampant factionalism. The biggest challenge facing CCM in his absence will be avoiding a return to the internal battles that historically undermined its coherence and reputation.

Rampant rumours

Rumours of ill-health dogged Magufuli's presidency, and resurfaced this March, when stories that he had contracted COVID-19 began to circulate widely on social media.

It was then claimed -- most notably by opposition leader Tundu Lissu -- that COVID-19 had exacerbated a pre-existing heart problem and that Magufuli had been flown to Kenya for treatment.

The government initially rejected these claims, insisting the president was fine -- it even arrested some people it accused of spreading such false rumours on social media (see TANZANIA: Denial will intensify COVID-19 questions - March 12, 2021).

The official announcement of Magufuli's death on March 18 therefore triggered accusations of a cover-up and led to calls for a public apology.

Nevertheless, the government maintains Magufuli died due to a heart condition and insists he never left the country.

Managing factionalism

It seems likely that one reason CCM was not forthcoming about Magufuli's condition was to buy time to manage the succession process.

Incoming President Samia lacks a strong base within the ruling party, and is often said to have been selected as vice president by Magufuli more as a 'figurehead' -- as a female Muslim leader from Zanzibar -- than a political heavyweight.

In this context, rumours of the president's illness were accompanied by stories that senior Magufuli allies within the intelligence and security services were attempting to suppress stories about Magufuli's health to buy more time to broker a deal with Samia -- and among themselves -- to ensure their ongoing influence in a post-Magufuli era.

Before Magufuli took charge, CCM was known for being riven by factionalism, organised largely via personal networks.

This competition was often lamented by presidents, in part because it constrained their ability to act and in part because it produced damaging scandals. With each faction linked to powerful financial backers, internal infighting often brought corrupt patron-client politics into the heart of government, while weak party discipline made it extremely difficult to rein in graft.

Magufuli fundamentally changed this dynamic, cracking down on corruption at all levels of the party and state apparatus and consolidating power in the presidency, often dismissing even senior party figures who stepped out of line.

In the absence of such a strong authority figure, party factionalism will likely return, most likely revolving around three camps: a pro-Magufuli faction led by Foreign Minister Palamagamba Kabudi and CCM Secretary-General Bashiru Ally; a group comprising figures who rose to prominence under former President Jakaya Kikwete; and a faction of CCM 'old hands' led by Speaker of the National Assembly Job Ndugai.

The main battle appears to be between the Magufuli and Kikwete factions. The former holds much current power, but Samia already appears to be involving figures such as Kikwete -- whose cabinet she served in -- in key discussions, perhaps to balance the Magufuli faction's influence and create space to exercise her own leadership.

Uncontrolled competition between these groups risks political instability and growing corruption, which in turn could undermine economic growth.

President Samia

The challenge facing Samia is therefore considerable. A soft-spoken leader affectionately known as 'Mama Samia', she is more inclined to persuade than dominate -- in contrast with Magufuli's outspoken and often aggressive style.

However, this does not mean she is not capable. She has a reputation as an effective administrator and those who know her suggest she can be 'tough' when necessary; she may need to be to establish her own power base.

She may nevertheless struggle to establish the kind of personal dominance Magufuli enjoyed over CCM -- especially given problematic gender norms that typically constrain women's political careers.

An important early indication of how Samia plans to manage CCM politics will come when she names her vice-president. An appointee from the 'pro-Magufuli' camp would signal a policy of continuity; naming a Kikwete ally would increase the chances of political change.

Magufuli's legacy

Magufuli will continue to cast a long shadow over Tanzanian politics.

While many Tanzanians may not have been fully persuaded of the way he downplayed COVID-19, his broader policies and performance were genuinely popular. Moreover, he leaves behind him powerful allies who are firmly committed to his policies.

Samia is unlikely to risk her own popularity by being seen to move against her predecessor's legacy, especially during the 14 days of national mourning, and any policy changes are likely to be incremental rather than radical.

For example, although the questions surrounding Magufuli's death are likely to increase the pressure for a policy shift over COVID-19 -- and new guidelines were recently announced, building on a nascent shift before Magufuli's death -- this is unlikely to lead to radical change.

Indeed, it was striking that basic social distancing measures were not enforced during major public gatherings upon Magufuli's death, and Samia has been seen attending meetings without a mask.

The same is true when it comes to the prospects for easing restrictions on political and civic freedoms.

Samia was a key part of the ticket that benefitted from the widespread repression and electoral manipulation that enabled CCM to win landslide victories in 2020's flawed elections. She also played an important role in relations with Zanzibar at a time when opposition supporters alleged widespread human rights abuses.

Having inherited a political apparatus geared towards suppressing domestic dissent, she is unlikely to take actions that would significantly weaken her party's grip on power, especially when her own power within the party is anything but secure.