Assassination threatens to destabilise Haiti further

Analysis

Details about yesterday's attack are still lacking. Haiti's rampant gang violence raises the strong possibility that it was related to organised crime, though claims by Joseph that the gunmen were well trained, heavily armed and spoke Spanish or English have fostered speculation that they may have been foreign mercenaries. Indeed, security forces said today that they had killed four such 'mercenaries' and detained two more.

Claims made by Moise in February, of an assassination and coup attempt, will further stoke rumours around his killing.

Opposition figures and foreign leaders have condemned the assassination and urged calm. Joseph has expressed similar sentiments, saying that the police have the situation under control (a questionable claim) and that "democracy and the republic will win".

A controversial president

Moise's presidency was contentious before it even began. A banana exporter with no prior experience of public office, he was chosen to represent incumbent President Michel Martelly's Tet-Kale Party in the 2015 elections. He went on to win, but too narrowly to avoid a run-off.

Fraud claims and delays to that run-off eventually saw the Provisional Electoral Council annul the election, heralding a period of political turmoil, before a re-run was held in November 2016. Moise secured a first-round victory with 55% of the vote, but on a low turnout, and against a backdrop of further fraud claims and bouts of violence. He took office in February 2017, a year later than planned, creating disagreement over the end-date of his term that has continued to the present day.

With prolonged social unrest, and more recently the COVID-19 pandemic, having prevented legislative elections, Moise ruled by decree from January 2020, prompting accusations of dictatorship. Elections were postponed several times, with unstable governance resulting in numerous changes of prime minister. Moise appointed the seventh prime minister of his presidency, Ariel Henry, on July 5, just hours before his assassination; the appointment was not ratified.

Such instability was used by Moise as justification for a controversial referendum on the adoption of a new constitution, ostensibly intended to strengthen the executive branch of government. Critics have slammed the move as an attempt to cement Moise's power, with even some individuals from his own party questioning its logic. Now scheduled for September 26, alongside presidential and legislative elections, the referendum has been thrown into doubt by Moise's death (see HAITI: Election schedule ushers in year of tensions - January 21, 2021).

Insecurity

Moise's political weakness fuelled rumours that he might have begun collaborating with organised crime in an effort to strengthen his position. Moise always denied such claims, though the potential political benefits of gang backing in terms of having the capacity to intimidate opponents and rally support are substantial. Whatever the relationship, if any, between the president and the gangs, several of the latter are politically active and are becoming increasingly violent (see HAITI: Gang alliance heightens political concerns - August 14, 2020).

Kidnappings have soared recently, while thefts and extortion have disrupted fuel deliveries and strained water supplies. Nearly 14,000 Port-au-Prince residents were displaced from their homes last month due to gang violence, according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, nearly twice the figure for the whole of 2020.

A wave of violence by a group of disgruntled police officers, known as Fantom 509, has involved jailbreaks and attacks on police stations this year, while police-officer-turned-gangster Jimmy Cherizier gained international media attention on June 23, when he announced that his 'G9' federation of gangs had become a revolutionary force to deliver Haiti from its political elites (see HAITI: Rising violence raises election concerns - May 4, 2021).

Joseph takes the lead

The question of who will succeed Moise appears to have been answered unilaterally, for now, by Joseph, but his claim is informal.

Normally the person to assume the president's responsibilities under these circumstances would be the head of the Supreme Court. However, the most recent holder of that role, Rene Sylvestre, died on June 23, after contracting COVID-19. He has not been replaced yet, complicating the question of who, constitutionally, should be taking on the presidency, and further heightening potential for political unrest.

For as long as he is in the role, the security challenges Joseph faces will be enormous, compounded by widespread corruption, COVID-19 and a crippled economy.

Already considered the Western Hemisphere's poorest country, Haiti's economy contracted by 3.7% in 2020, according to the IMF, exacerbating hardship for the populace (see HAITI: Pandemic to worsen recession and instability - November 27, 2020).

While insufficient testing obfuscates the reality, Haiti also appears to have seen a COVID-19 surge recently, with a recorded rolling seven-day daily average of 6.29 new cases on May 11, soaring to 190.0 on June 8. It has since fluctuated, hitting 87.14 on July 7. Haiti is yet to receive a single dose of vaccine. Until it does, the pandemic will weigh heavily on economic activity and debilitate health services.

Joseph, if he remains Haiti's interim leader, will struggle with such challenges. Cross-party solidarity following Moise's assassination may nevertheless buy him a period of political cooperation and good will, through which he could pursue the establishment of a transitional national unity government, potentially led by his unratified successor, Henry.

Elections

Such an outcome will probably be encouraged by the international community as a stabilising precursor to elections, which may now be delayed. Further election postponement would be controversial, but if announced by a national unity government with cross-party support, might not be explosive.

Another move that could help reduce political volatility would be the scrapping of Moise's referendum plan. As by far the most contentious of the scheduled upcoming votes, its scrapping would remove one major catalyst for violence.

Whenever they are ultimately held, free and fair elections will play a crucial role in re-establishing lasting political stability. However, no particular individual or party yet stands out as an obvious election winner, capable of uniting the country and inspiring voters en masse.

Recent past elections have been characterised by low turnouts. That looks unlikely to change in the immediate future. Violence will worsen to some degree in the lead-up to elections and particularly around polling day. Should apathy or fear result in a low turnout again, that could erode the legitimacy of any election win, perpetuating political tensions well into the next presidential term.