MEXICO: Fox campaign gathers pace

Analysis

Until a few weeks ago, it seemed that the ruling Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) was heading for a comfortable victory in the July 2 presidential election, extending its seven uninterrupted decades in power for a further six years and making Francisco Labastida its 13th president in a row. The wide margin by which Labastida was selected as the PRI's candidate in November, in the party's first ever open primaries, gave his campaign impetus just as the campaigns of his main rivals were flagging (see Labastida wins the PRI's presidential candidacy in Mexico - LADB, November 9, 1999, II. ). Polls at the time showed him leading the field by more than 15 percentage points. The same polls gave second place to Vicente Fox of the centre-right Partido Accion Nacional (PAN), running with green PVEM in the Alliance for Change. Cuauhtemoc Cardenas, of the left-of-centre Partido de la Revolucion Democratica (PRD), which is partnered by four minor parties in the Alliance for Mexico, was in third place with less than 10% support.

1. Fox momentum . While Cardenas has continued to languish in third place, Fox's campaign has gathered momentum, and some polls now make him favourite to win in July. A new opportunity for the electorate to gauge the appeal of the candidates was to have taken place today, when the three frontrunners were to have taken part in a televised debate. However, the event was cancelled at the last minute when the parties failed to agree on the format. Suspicions have arisen that the debate was sabotaged by Fox's rivals in a bid to slow his progress.

   A number of factors have boosted the Fox campaign, while others have undermined Labastida:

   • TV debate .In the televised debate that took place on April 25, Fox was widely regarded as the winner among the main three candidates (see ARGENTINA: Alliance aims for more accountable government - LADB, April 27, 2000, I. ). Labastida's attempts to provoke him into the kind of intemperate outbursts for which he is notorious backfired, and enhanced his credentials as a statesman (for some analysts this is the real explanation for the collapse of plans for today's debate).
   • Protest vote .The growing anti-PRI vote has coalesced around Fox, while Cardenas now appears to enjoy the support only of his party faithful. As the possibility of a PAN-PVEM victory has become more credible, it has attracted increasing support. A characteristic of this swing is that it reflects a change in voter sentiment, not in the style of campaigning employed by the Fox camp.
   • Labastida fatigue .The campaign fatigue that plagued the Alliance for Change at the end of last year has now invaded the PRI camp. Voters also appear to have been confused by Labastida's discourse. He has taken to referring constantly to a 'new PRI', while his campaign offers little recognisably new.
   • Perceived desperation .Shortly after last month's debate, Labastida reshuffled his campaign team, pushing aside Esteban Moctezuma, a moderniser who could be presented as a representative of the 'new PRI', in favour of old political heavyweights. All PRI governors were openly enrolled to support Labastida, and top public officials -- including ministers, but not President Ernesto Zedillo -- asked to promote the campaign within their departments. These actions have been perceived as signs of desperation, further undermining the Labastida campaign.

2. Opinion polls . Of four opinion polls conducted since the April debate, two give the lead to Labastida, and two to Fox. An opinion poll conducted by US-based Zogby International, commissioned by Reuters and published on May 11, was the first to give Fox the lead, with 46.3%, followed by Labastida with 41.6%, and Cardenas with 9.3%. Hours later, the results of a poll carried out by Pearson and commissioned by the PRI were published, giving Labastida a six percentage-point advantage. On May 18, Reforma, the respected daily newspaper, published a poll giving Labastida 42% and Fox 40%, with Cardenas on 16%. A poll by the GEA consultancy firm published on the same day gave Fox 43.6% and Labastida 38.6%.

3. Fraud possibilities . Fraud has been a key issue in the country's idiosyncratic voting system virtually since the revolution. Heavy vote-rigging is thought to have had a decisive influence on the outcome of elections in 1929, 1940, 1952 and 1988. In the latter case, Cardenas was the challenger denied victory. Despite this track record, the establishment of a fully independent electoral authority, the IFE, in 1994 has helped restore some credibility to the process:

   • The IFE controls all the stages of the election process with no intervention by government or party officials (political parties are members of the IFE council, but have no vote). The IFE council is formed by citizens appointed by Congress, with a strong record as independents. In some cases, members are openly anti-PRI.
   • The infrastructure of the voting process has been radically transformed, including the use of photographs on ID cards and the electoral roll, transparent ballot boxes and the presence of international observers.
   • Election results have agreed closely with the prior opinion polls and with the exit polls.
   • Government and PRI influence in the national media has declined sharply over the past decade.
   • Since the PRI lost its majority in the Chamber of Deputies in 1997, Congress has monitored government activities closely, making it harder for officials to act illegally in favour of the ruling party.