Moscow visit will bolster Syria regime cohesion

President Bashar al-Assad's first foreign visit since the uprising is a major propaganda victory

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow yesterday, in his first trip abroad since the start of the civil war in in 2011. Russia's military escalation in Syria in support of Assad's regime has significantly extended its prospects of survival against rebel forces attempting to overthrow him. Russian airstrikes have enabled regime forces on the ground, backed by Iraqi militias and Lebanese Hezbollah militants, to make gains against rebel positions in central Syria and around Aleppo. Russia is seeking to influence the outcome of any negotiations to end the conflict, to ensure that the post-conflict government is supportive of Moscow's interests in the region.

Our judgement

Assad's Moscow visit is a clear signal from Putin to the international community that the Syrian president must remain in power if any solution to the Syrian conflict is to be found. Assad's decision to leave the country for the first time also shows how Russia's intervention has bolstered his own position within the Syrian regime and reduced the risk of any rivals seeking to launch an internal coup against him.

See RUSSIA: Moscow will save Syria's Assad for endgame - October 5, 2015.