PiS will dominate Polish politics and policy
Clean sweep of institutions could be as much a danger as an opportunity
Beata Szydlo is the Law and Justice (PiS) candidate for prime minister, a PiS spokeswoman confirmed yesterday. Party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski nominated Szydlo in June, accepting his own electoral liability. Relations between the two could now deteriorate. Official results yesterday awarded victory in the October 25 parliamentary elections to PiS with 39.1% of the votes and 235 out of 460 seats in parliament; it can govern alone. The former governing Civic Platform gained 23.4% (138 seats). PiS also won 61 of the 100 Senate seats, has held the presidency since May and next year will appoint the National Bank governor and eight of its Monetary Policy Council. That might allow a new monetary policy while outwardly respecting central bank independence. The new government may moderate some of its election pledges, such as raising public spending while keeping to a 3.0% of GDP deficit ceiling. On climate change, PiS will fight hard to retain coal as a major energy source.
Our judgement
It is unclear whether PiS wants radical change from the policies of its centrist predecessor or will opt for pragmatism. A single-party government risks internal splits.
See POLAND: PiS may be largest party yet fail to govern - September 16, 2015.