Russian Su-24 Turkey clash will raise tensions
Russian Su-24 shot down on Turkish border with Moscow saying the jet was in Syria
A Russian Su-24 jet was shot down on the Turkish border today. According to the Russian defence ministry, the aircraft was operating over Syria and was brought down by ground fire. However, according to Ankara, two Turkish F-16 jets warned the Russian aircraft ten times before shooting it down in Turkey's Hatay province. The Russian jet reportedly came down in the Lattakia region close to where Russia is operating a large air base. Turkey's air force has previously shot down a Syrian air force jet in 2013 and possibly a Syrian helicopter in 2014. Recent weeks have seen growing tensions between Moscow and Ankara, with Turkey protesting to Moscow on November 20 about Russia's bombing of ethnic Turkmen villages in northern Syria.
Our judgement
Russia will not halt its current air campaign to save the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, but its pilots are likely to show greater caution close to Turkey's border. The risk of similar incidents is high. A direct retaliation by Russia towards the Turkish military is unlikely unless there are further such incidents. Calls for enhanced deconfliction procedures are likely to grow.
See RUSSIA: Syria gamble will test Putin's military - October 9, 2015.