PMDB pull-out brings impeachment closer in Brazil
The PMDB's tactic is self-serving but may backfire if it is forced to take charge of the economic and political crisis
As anticipated, the Democratic Movement Party (PMDB) led by Vice President Michel Temer yesterday announced its unanimous decision to withdraw from the governing coalition, forcing the resignation of six cabinet ministers; Tourism Minister Henrique Alves had already departed on Monday. A smaller coalition member, the Progressive Party, will vote today on whether to pull out, while other smaller parties have already done so. The PMDB decision makes it increasingly likely that Congress will back President Dilma Rousseff's impeachment, with an initial vote coming as early as mid-April. Rousseff's potential departure could leave Temer to see out her term, unless an additional charge of illegal campaign finance prospers, in which case Temer would also be forced out and new elections called.
Our judgement
If smaller allies also abandon Rousseff, she is unlikely to find the 171 votes she would require to block a Lower House vote on impeachment. The PMDB's move appears to be self-interested, potentially handing Temer the presidency and some scope to negotiate with the business community. However, any PMDB-led government will face the same corruption claims and sharp recession that have plagued Rousseff; impeachment will not end the crisis.
See BRAZIL: Early Rousseff exit appears ever more likely - March 14, 2016.